Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 7 operating system is launching with a big bang: ten handsets, eighteen operators, and a massive marketing campaign

The OS itself is positioned firmly in between iPhone and Android in terms of ease-of-use and customisability; it is as fast as the best-in-class but no faster; and its interface is bold but will not be to everybody’s taste

A lack of apps, limited distribution, and expensive handsets will likely limit sales in the short term. Longer term, being late in the game with no truly compelling unique feature will make building a major position very challenging, but not impossible

Ofcom’s decision not to investigate Project Canvas under the Competition Act removes one more regulatory obstacle to the launch of the broadband connected TV service with the brand name YouView

It looks increasingly as if the YouView launch will experience further delay, with autumn 2011 looking steadily more likely as disputes continue over the satisfactoriness of the technical specifications released by YouView for meeting manufacturer needs

Although backed by powerful broadcast and ISP interests, YouView faces stiff challenges to achieving widespread adoption among ‘Freeverse’ homes, with much depending on YouView’s ability both to deliver consistent product quality and to get its message across

The decline in UK residential broadband market growth has paused due to accelerating adoption by older householders and increased household formation. We expect 970,000 net additions in 2010 and 20.5 million broadband households by 2015. However we expect growth will continue to decline from 2011 as the impact of the government spending review feeds into consumer confidence and the market becomes increasingly saturated

As BT’s next generation access network is deployed, there is likely to be accelerated improvement in DSL price/performance, with DSL customers migrating to a 40 Mbit/s headline speed as it becomes available. The impact of this is likely to be compounded by Virgin Media up-rating its broadband portfolio from speeds of 10, 20 and 50 Mbit/s to 20, 50 and 100 Mbit/s

In the absence of further consolidation, in market share terms the industry appears set to remain divided into three strategic segments: the ‘big three’, brand extenders, and Sky. We expect residential broadband market revenue (excluding content) to continue to decline gradually, stabilising by 2015 as the impact of market share gain by lower priced ISPs attenuates due to a combination of a maturing market and reduced price differentials caused by NGA

 In Q3, Google’s UK revenue increased 14% YoY to £520 million – in line with our expectations of slowing growth in H2 – our forecast for 2010 remains at £2,075 million (all figures excluding estimated hedging gains)

In its earnings call, the company shared global display and mobile revenue numbers – on an annualised basis these now represent $2.5 billion and $1 billion respectively (with some overlap) – much higher than previous estimates

We have adjusted our 2010 forecast for UK internet advertising to account for higher than expected classified growth and previously unreported spend to £3,900 million

Google has confirmed the first content partners for the US version of Google TV – including Turner, HBO and Netflix – which is expected to launch within the next 2 weeks

No new distribution partners have been announced and rumoured pricing for enabled Sony TV sets suggests that Google TV will initially be a premium product

At present, Google TV’s main selling point appears to be providing a decent web surfing experience to the TV set – in our view, better content is needed if it is to compete with Apple TV and other internet TV devices

 

Everything Everywhere’s maiden investor day presentation was soured by the disappointing results it reported for Q2 2010, with service revenue growth underperforming its UK competitors by 7 percentage points. At current relative growth rates, O2 will retake its lead by June 2011

The synergy savings targets have been maintained, but focused more towards back office functions and away from front line assets such as shops and network base station sites, with the brands being kept separate for the time being. This is a sensible enough approach, and the cost savings still look eminently achievable

Going forward, the company will have the advantage of a better network but the disadvantage of disruptive integration for the next few years. Its main challenge will be to reverse the current negative revenue momentum, which puts both its revenue and margin targets at risk

 

We forecast UK online advertising to grow by 8% CAGR to £5.1 billion by 2014, representing approx. 33% of total advertising spend, overtaking press

Search is the main growth engine, which we predict will reach £3.1 billion in 2014, due to its appeal and value to advertisers as a sales and lead generation tool

Growth in spend on social media and video networks will push online display to just over £1 billion by 2014; whilst classifieds will grow to £840 million

Google’s new Google Instant displays and updates results in real time as users type in queries, shaving an estimated 2-5 seconds off the average 9 seconds taken to carry out a search

Available in the US and UK now and key European markets shortly with other territories and mobile to follow in 2011, Instant will help Google to differentiate its search engine in an increasingly competitive market

Google Instant should stabilise, if not boost, the company’s share of queries, which has fallen both in the US and globally since February, and may also enhance the value of ads on Google

Part Two of our annual report on classifieds covers property, auto (used) and directories

As with recruitment, covered in Part One, a step change downwards has occurred in the underlying volumes of transactions driving classifieds in property, autos and directories

Publishers of commercially-run classified sites must contend to different degrees with the presence of Google

Advertiser interest in print editions of directories will remain as these continue to attract mainly older consumers and households outside urban areas

Advertisers face a fragmented marketplace online for directory services, as desktops are used for in-home services, while smartphone apps supply the destination services prized by the affluent, young urban dweller

Germany, the UK and France are the three largest advertising markets in Europe, worth €40.3 billion in 2009, of which €8.9 billion was spent on internet ads, 65% of the total across the continent (based on IAB Europe survey of 19 countries)

In per capita terms, the UK and Germany spend the most on advertising: in 2009, roughly €200 per head was spent in the UK and Germany, 40% more than in France