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Sky News

The concept of demerging Sky News is evidently a plausible one and we consider it very unlikely that critics of the deal will have much success undermining its appropriateness as a protection of plurality

However, it is harder to judge whether the proposed implementation secures the channel’s independence as fully and clearly as it might

We outline a series of issues that the information supplied for the public consultation does not appear to deal with. We note, in particular, that the proposed undertakings seem not to block Rupert Murdoch, or members of his family, from buying the 60.9% of the shares in Sky News not to be held by News Corp

In this short presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to December 2010, based on the published results of the major service providers. We include our own estimates where reported data is incomplete. This quarter’s edition includes a look at Ofcom’s recent research into broadband speeds and its response to the Advertising Standards Authority’s review of broadband advertising.

Last week Apple introduced a new subscription payment system for publishers using its devices, but also clamped down on publishers using their own payment systems, obliging them to offer Apple’s system (with a 30% commission) in parallel or leave the platform

For publishers selling their own content with no marginal cost, this is an extra cost that most will grudgingly accept. But aggregators obliged to pay rights-holders a fixed fee for each content sale, such as music or ebook vendors, face bigger problems: some will be forced off the platform

Apple is trying to strengthen its ecosystem, increasing the range and user-friendliness of apps and locking users in with content only usable on its devices. Yet it risks pushing some popular services off its platform entirely, increasing the appeal of the newly launched Android devices

The year ended on a strong note, as Sky broke passed its milestone of ten million homes and achieved yet another record breaking quarter for multi-product take-up

Home communications once more achieved exceptional growth, with triple play penetration jumping from 18% to 24%, while HD take-up resumed strong momentum after halving in Q1 2011

Financially, the company has never looked in better shape, with good prospects for continuing strong multi-product growth, leaving the question of where Sky will choose to invest next to drive further revenue growth

Jeremy Hunt announced on 25 January his intention to refer News Corp’s bid for BSkyB to the Competition Commission

However, he is first providing News Corp with the opportunity to address Ofcom’s concerns, and in so doing protecting his department and Ofcom from any legal threats

If Ofcom or the OFT say the News Corp remedies don’t go far enough, Jeremy Hunt will be then almost obliged to refer the transaction to the CC

Google’s UK gross revenue rose 18% YoY in Q4 to £550 million (excluding estimated hedging gains), with bad weather and the impending VAT rise helping to deliver better than expected performance

The company’s core search business continues to be a key driver and beneficiary of the growth in consumer e-commerce, which we project will increase by 20% in 2011, compared to 4-5% for retail sales (excluding fuels)

We have raised our 2011 growth forecast for Google’s UK business to 15% – with search supported by growth in mobile and display – we now project UK internet advertising spend will increase 11% this year

Smartphones are rapidly moving to become a majority of UK mobile handset sales, driving a surge in mobile internet use. Even if usage per user (currently growing) flattens out, we forecast mobile internet usage to grow from 1.8bn hours in 2010 to 7bn in 2015: 28% of total online time

This should drive the long promised growth in mobile advertising and we project UK spend, including search and display, will rise to £420 million by 2015, equivalent to 10% of PC internet search/display advertising

We expect the majority of this usage to be incremental to PC-based consumption, as users find new things to do and buy on the mobile web, driving the overall online advertising market to further growth

By 2015 we expect internet-centric smartphone penetration in the UK to reach 75% and mobile internet use to reach 28% of total time spent online. The dynamics and ecosystems of the mobile internet, and in particular the app model, will become a significant part of overall digital strategies

First seen as an interim reaction to slow networks and small screens, mobile apps have become a major new route to market for publishers and ecommerce providers, and are likely to spread to new areas

However, Apple is likely to continue to lose share in the internet-centric smartphone market, and publishers will face a far messier, fragmented world of competing platforms, app stores and payment systems

With the completion of digital switchover still on track for mid 2012, stabilisation of the main digital broadcast platforms is expected, with roughly equal numbers of subscription pay-TV and free TV homes, though with marked differences between the platforms in terms of demographic composition and the proportion of pay-TV customers

Further marked differences exist between the satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms with regard to PVR adoption, notably higher in pay-TV households where distribution can benefit from box subsidies and greater product consistency. National PVR penetration of TV homes is expected to grow from slightly below 50% in 2010 to over 70% in 2015

As DSO nears completion, the stage is set for broadband connectivity. Although household penetration of internet-enabled TV devices is expected to exceed 50% by 2015, the emergence of hybrid broadcast and broadband services is expected to proceed much more slowly, limited by a number of factors – not least the ability of service providers to monetise their non-linear on demand offerings

Sky Songs will shutter on 7 February 2011, ending a brand extension experiment that probably cost parent BSkyB some £5 million end-to-end

A PC-based ad-free subscription service, Sky Songs failed to offer the mobility and exclusive content that music fans are most willing to pay for

Spotify’s reported 750,000 European customers as of November 2010 have moved the subscription side closer to breakeven, while the ad-supported side bleeds on