The UK residential communications sector again had a strong quarter for revenue growth, with reported growth from the top four operators at 5%, or around 4% excluding the one-off impact of extra BT Sport related revenues

Unfortunately cost growth was even stronger, with margins dropping at three of the four largest operators. The aggressive launch of BT Sport has driven up content costs, marketing costs or both for all of the operators

The main issue going forward will continue to be actual and potential disruption relating to BT Sport. Content and marketing costs have likely been set at a new higher level, with further increases possible up to and following mid-2015, when the next Premier League auction is due and BT takes over the Champions League rights

After several years of preparation Sky’s AdSmart launched in August and is on schedule to be offered to all advertisers in January/February 2014 after beta trials involving some 50 advertisers in the second half of 2013 AdSmart is all about addressable and low waste targeted segmentation on the Sky pay-TV satellite platform, which for the first time in UK TV history allows national channels to offer highly localised, targeted advertising AdSmart promises to grow significantly the TV advertising ecosystem, though success in realising the full revenue potential of AdSmart, possibly in the order of several hundred million pounds per annum, will depend on Sky’s ability to handle various challenges on the way, with regional press and direct mail most at risk

BT has doubled the price of the live ECL/EEL rights to £900m in order to outbid Sky and ITV and become the sole owner from 2015/16 to 2017/18 BT can easily absorb these extra costs through cost savings in other parts of its business, but the direct revenue returns through subscription charges and advertising on BT Sport are expected to fall far below the annual rights payments of £300m BT’s Euro victory is not a game changer in itself, but eyes are now firmly fixed on the next auction in about 18 months time of live PL rights, which could prove to be an inflationary bloodbath for all market participants

2014 will be a tough year for Sky as it strives to improve the connectivity across its base while facing the challenge of BT in premium sports. 2014 has started well in terms of product growth and BT Sport has had no discernible impact on Sky broadband take-up and little, if any, impact on acquisition and retention discounts offered to new and existing Sky customers. With eyes focused on the impending auction of European Champions League pay-TV rights, we think BT has every incentive to push the price up, but not actually to win them.

Although it is early days, BARB audience data already supply useful insights into the potential impact of BT Sport on the acquisition and retention of BT broadband customers and take-up of BT Infinity

Now entering its third month the very heavily publicised BT Sport has made a relatively good start in Sky households compared with its predecessors Setanta and ESPN, but less of a difference in DTT households, where getting BT Sport on BT TV is not straightforward

However, BT is still very much the junior player in a duopolistic mature market for premium sport, which we do not expect to grow significantly even if the premium sport is being given away

UK residential communications revenue growth was again strong in Q2 2013 at 4% supported by strong unit volume growth (despite seasonal factors in the quarter) and firming ARPU, helped by firm pricing and high speed broadband take up

High speed broadband adoption continued apace at BT and Virgin Media, but much more slowly at the other operators. This may start to change in the second half of the year, as Sky and TalkTalk market the product more aggressively, and a wires-only self-install version becomes available

Overall the market outlook remains very healthy, with two potential areas of market disruption – BT Sport and regulated pricing – looking like they will resolve without prompting a damaging price war

FY 2013 produced strong growth as revenues increased by 6.5% and costs by only 6.1% as a large £188 million rise in programming spend was more than balanced by the achievement of efficiencies in operating service costs The big surprise was the announcement of a £60-70 million impact on EBIT in 2014 as Sky seeks to accelerate the uptake of connected TV across its base The big threat in 2014 is the possible loss of European Champions League rights to BT Sport from the 2015/16 season, while the main challenge is how to maximise connected TV revenues, where clear communication of the benefits and enhancements will play a vital role

On 28 June, News Corporation split into two companies:
• 21st Century Fox will consist of the TV and entertainment assets: Cable Network Programming, Fox Filmed Entertainment, Television, Sky Italia, its 55% stake in Sky Deutschland and its 39% stake in BSkyB.
• New News Corp will consist of the publishing assets (Dow Jones, The Sun and Times/Sunday Times, the New York Post, News America Marketing Group, the Australian newspapers and Harper Collins), as well as Fox Sports Australia, the digital education business Amplify, a 61.6% stake in digital property business REA Group Limited and a 50% stake in Australian pay-TV operator Foxtel.

The split partly reflects industry trends. Over the last five years, a number of media conglomerates, including McGraw-Hill and Time Warner, have separated low growth, low multiple publishing assets from higher growth parts of the businesses in order to optimise valuations and management focus.

This report provides a breakdown of the divisions within the two new companies and analyses their growth prospects.

UK residential communications revenue growth was very strong in Q1 2013, rising to 4.6% from 2.1% in the previous quarter with most of the improvement driven by improved unit ARPU growth, which turned positive for the first time since early 2011

We expect unit volume growth to remain strong for the rest of the year, although ARPU growth is likely to moderate as overlapping price increases drop out, but it is still likely to be firmer than 2012 given the continued growth of high speed broadband (at least at BT and Virgin Media) and firm pricing in general

The outlook for market shares is less certain, with a number of difficult-to-predict factors coming into play, and while we do not expect dramatic changes in market share to result from any of these factors, they do create a risk of pushing operators to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies, which would disrupt an otherwise very healthy outlook

Q3 2013 results show a sound financial performance and strong growth in home communications, offset by low DTH net additions under a testing economic climate With a heavy emphasis on its own product initiatives in the broader connected screen and on demand space, the results release also shows Sky to be preparing for increasing competition from BT Vision and others in the IPTV space Although the rising competition promises extra programme and marketing costs and constraints on future product price increases, we expect limited impact on subscriber numbers, but also significant opportunities for incremental revenues