In this report we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to March 2012, based on the published results of the major service providers.

Highlights for the March quarter include broadband subscriptions exceeding 21 million, a sudden uptick in broadband market net additions and local loop unbundling accounting for a record 40% of broadband subscriptions. The proportion of unbundled lines that are fully unbundled exceeded two thirds for the first time.

This quarter we also include a look at pricing, including prices for high speed broadband that show how BT Retail is using high speed broadband to reduce the price advantage of its competitors.

The Apple rumour mill turns to television, with widespread speculation that Apple will shortly announce… something, that will offer a different approach to the TV experience.

 However, if Apple distributes TV content in new ways, it will need to work with existing channels and often pay providers, who are unlikely to enable fundamental disruption to their business models.

 We see plenty of scope for Apple to make a great TV product – which need not necessarily be an actual television. But we see far less scope for it to break apart the value chain of TV content – and Apple doesn’t need to

Further sharp year-on-year declines in viewing share by the leading commercial PSB channels, ITV1 and Channel 4, in Q1 2012 run contrary to the general stabilisation of viewing trends as Digital Switchover nears completion

The Channel 4 decline is more easily explained by exceptional factors, while closer examination of NAR trends suggest that ITV Family NAR has performed less well in recent quarters than results releases suggest

Once past Digital Switchover, digital convergence trends appear less of a threat towards the future stability of ITV and Channel 4 family viewing trends than the competitive threat from Sky as it raises its investment in UK programme origination

The Competition Commission has decided to reverse its provisional decision of August 2011 and has cleared Sky Movies of having ‘adverse effects on competition’ This change of heart – which we think is the first time in the Commission’s history of market investigations – was forecast by Enders Analysis in March BSkyB is the primary beneficiary of this announcement, which will almost certainly delay the growth of SVOD in the UK

The weak spot of 15,000 net TV additions in a positive quarter for operating profit growth reflects the continuing downward pressures of a struggling economy, with little indication of headwinds to do with connected TV Very strong growth in home communications in a weak quarter for TV net additions underline Sky’s competitive strengths in a market now close to maturity, as well as bringing revenue growth and churn reduction benefits Overshadowing Sky’s Q3 results, Ofcom’s investigation into the “fit and proper” status of News Corp’s shareholding in BSkyB is unlikely to affect the company in 2012

The London Olympics promise to be a major success for both the free-to-air broadcast licensees and the leading pay-TV platforms as a result of co-operative deals being forged between them

Recent distribution agreements with Sky provide the BBC and Eurosport with a massively bigger window to showcase their credentials in in-depth sports coverage and new technologies, especially 3D

For Sky, and assuming VMed in due course, there exist a number of potential indirect commercial benefits, as the message is sent out loud and clear that there is no better place to go for London Olympics free-to-air coverage than the pay-TV platforms

On 5 April, it emerged that Sky News had authorised a journalist to access emails on two occasions. Although Sky News may have committed a criminal offence, the likelihood of a successful prosecution is extremely slight, in our opinion

Ofcom could decide to discipline Sky News for the alleged actions; however the offence is very far from being sufficiently severe to warrant the removal of its broadcasting licence. And, in any event, it would almost certainly be Sky News that would lose the licence, not its parent BSkyB, which appears to have had no involvement whatsoever in the events revealed last week

The two previous cases in which broadcasters were judged not to be ‘fit and proper’ holders of licences involved far more severe breaches of the law or regulatory codes

In this first of two reports on TV platform growth, we consider the impact of digital convergence on the traditional broadcast channel distribution platforms. As the analogue era draws to a close, the new era of digital convergence across multiple screens and devices is gathering momentum. We assess the various forces of change, including superfast broadband rollout, the continuing growth of pay-TV adoption and the strategic resilience of Sky and Virgin Media. We provide our forecasts for TV platform penetration to 2020.

The CC seems to be preparing to reverse its provisional conclusion that Sky’s hold over premium movies is damaging competition

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to December 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers.

Highlights for the December quarter include a return to the lower rate of broadband market growth seen prior to mid-2010, accelerating growth in the number of subscribers to high speed broadband and the continuing increase in market share of BT Retail and BSkyB at the expense of virtually all other players

This quarter’s edition includes a look at Openreach’s wholesale FTTP On Demand, planned for launch in 2013.

Following announcements by Virgin Media to double the speeds used by most cable customers, and by BSkyB to launch high speed broadband offer in April based on Openreach’s wholesale VDSL product, by 2016 we now expect about half of UK residential broadband subscribers to be on high speed broadband, i.e. xDSL or GPON at 30 Mbit/s plus, and DOCSIS at 20 Mbit/s plus