Having experienced an almost straight-line decline in its audience, ITV1’s 20% share of total viewing in 2006 is about half of what it was in 1992. Although the causes of this dramatic decline have varied, the result has always been the same. When and where will it end? ITV1 Viewing Decline: Causes and Prospects [2006-63] examines the most recent viewing trends, starting in January 2003 and coinciding with the launch of review. This period has seen especially rapid digital growth, with almost 80% of the population now able to receive digital TV channels at home, compared with just over 50% at the start of 2003
Vodafone UK’s new broadband product is not very competitively priced compared to the offers from Carphone Warehouse and Orange, costing £5-10 a month more than the nearest equivalent packages
Under mounting competitive pressure from Sky, NTL needs to reinforce its position in content and has approached ITV about a possible combination
Orange UK’s converged mobile and broadband brands and ‘free’ broadband offer has not proved a big hit with consumers, with Orange reporting just 25,000 DSL net additions for the September quarter, likely to be below 5% market share
In a fit of pique over increasing subsidies, Vodafone UK is dropping Carphone Warehouse (CPW) as a distributor, and moving exclusively to Phones4U with lower subsidy levels and volume guarantees, while Orange is reportedly also considering its position with CPW
Total TV advertising expenditure is expected to fall between 4% and 7% in 2006. ITV1 will suffer most, with a projected fall in NAR of around 13-14%, but the rest of the TV industry is also starting to feel the pain
ITV plc national advertising revenues (NAR) from ITV1 fell by £50 million in 2005. This was caused chiefly by a loss of more than 6% in weighted share of commercial impacts in 2004, which enables a proportionately similar reduction in 2005 ITV1 NAR under the CRR remedy. It was offset by total TV NAR growth of about 2.5% in 2005
BT is clearly positioning its new, 21CN-based wholesale services as an economically viable alternative to both DIY and wholesale LLU
Orange’s new ‘free broadband’ offer brings savings of up to 60% for Orange UK customers who pay for broadband, and may appeal to a great many of them
On Wednesday Orange announced a simple new single tariff range for all its new contract users. Although there are some benefits to both consumers and Orange of tariff simplification, the main impact appears to be to increase the price of calls for off-peak users, which is a sensible strategy for Orange and consistent with other tariff increases we have seen recently. Orange may lose customers because of this, but it has helpfully given four weeks warning of the change to the other operators, who may react with changes of their own.
Weak economic growth is usually blamed, but we believe that other forms of communication are substituting for fixed voice calls. Substitution of fixed line calls by calls from mobile phones is increasingly less important. By contrast, our conclusion is that Internet-based communication (email and instant messaging) has recently become a far more important source of competition to fixed line voice calls.
The flow of news about ITV is going from bad to worse. But we think that the market may have misunderstood the real story behind last week's bombshell that ITV viewing has fallen by 25% in a year. This figure could have been predicted from existing data.