UK football rights values have pulled further away from European peers in a stagnant market, as telcos have withdrawn and tech companies remain selective bidders.
Sky and Canal+ have tied down key contracts until towards the end of the decade, while DAZN now has domestic rights for four of the top five European football leagues.
Tech players want live sport, but have distinctive demands and without new monetisation models they will not challenge pay-TV incumbents.
The spatial computing ecosystem is on the uptick with the wider availability of head mounted devices (HMD). Apple and Meta’s commitment to developing HMDs is existential to conquer the enormous technical hurdles these devices continue to face.
Apple has chosen to maroon the Vision Pro with a lack of controllers and other design choices making it reliant on mostly passive entertainment. In total contrast, Meta’s deep engagement in gaming and 3D experiences showcases the potential for the HMD category.
Live sports is the outstanding use case for TV experiences on VR headsets, with exclusive NBA VR programming on Quest bringing new levels of immersion and presence, while gaming, and its developers, will still remain the dominant driver for VR and MR for the rest of the decade.
Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn
Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions
Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating
Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream
Streaming fell back into the red again, although with further price hikes on the way—along with "modest" Disney+ subscriber growth—next quarter should see the beginning of a profitable trajectory
In the UK, Disney+ continues to grow engagement—if not necessarily subscriptions—however, we still await a boost from local scripted originals
While the performance of Disney's core segments appears to be stabilising, 2024 remains a year of unfinished projects
We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.
SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.
On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030
The US National Basketball Association has awarded its global broadcasting rights to Disney, Comcast and Amazon for $76 billion over eleven years.
The NBA is helping pioneer a new era of rights deals, by agreeing global contracts and a strategic DTC partnership with Amazon.
Sport stands at the crossroad of Amazon’s video, advertising and retail strategies.
After an arduous ten-month process, France’s Ligue 1 has reached a tentative deal to license its 2024-29 broadcasting rights at a price 14% down on the previous cycle.
Adding France (for €400 million p.a.), DAZN now has prominent positions in four out of the five big European markets. With a weekly top pick (for €100m p.a.), beIN consolidates its model.
Attention turns to distribution, and whether DAZN will patch up its partnership with Canal+.
Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.
The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.
The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.
AI integration into production tools throughout media industries will deliver increased productivity for professional content creation. Generally available tools will also improve quality and production speed for individual user-creators.
Roadblocks include the uncertain copyright status of models and their outputs, attitudes of creative workers and consumers, and the AI tech underdelivering versus what was promised. The need to integrate new tools into existing processes is perhaps the biggest brake.
There are stark differences by sector: the opportunities are greatest in games, where costs have ballooned and software engineering is core. Marketing is furthest in exploiting AI, while audiovisual production is more cautious.