France’s first round of the presidential election on 23 April looks set to deliver a run-off on 6 May between nationalist Marine Le Pen and pro-EU, pro-NATO reformer Emmanuel Macron, who holds a 20 point lead in that contest – a much higher margin than last year’s mistaken projections for Clinton and Remain

Should Mr. Macron become president and win a majority in the June parliamentary elections, a challenge for nascent party En Marche!, his reformist platform would tackle France’s main economic issue: low employment. The anticipated privatisation of Orange could launch a burst of media and telecom M&A 

A defeat of Marine Le Pen and a new reformist French government could relaunch the partnership with Germany, making the EU more confident in its future, and improving auspices for a sensible Brexit

The past 14 months have seen a flurry of activity from the major UK television platforms, with all but one releasing a revamped version of their television offering; a neccessary reaction to the rise of VOD consumption and the threat this poses to traditional models

The result is 'connected' offerings, with the major players aiming to exploit the impact of this technology by seamlessly integrating on-demand capabilities, and in doing so mitigate the further shockwaves resulting from its emergence

No offering is likely to single-handedly alter the current subscriber landscape radically; with the pay platforms' each taking a unique—and to a degree—entrenched path that affirms its core consumer base, the greatest shifting of sands will likely come from changes in consumer trends or content quality

Fashion underpins the growth of ecommerce; online took a 14% share of all fashion retail in the UK last year and is set to rise further, challenging the economics of physical retail 

Mobile is a key driver, it is changing research and shopping habits, and in turn affecting supplier product cycles, merchandising and marketing strategies 

Social media has disrupted the traditional shopping funnel, changing how trends and styles proliferate and shifting the sites of authority and influence in a £66 billion sector

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to September 2011, together with our latest projections for residential broadband subscribers and market shares to 2016. Highlights for the 2011 September quarter include accelerating growth in the number of subscribers to high speed broadband, and the continuing increase in market share of BT Retail and BSkyB at the expense of virtually all other players. This quarter’s edition includes a look at high speed broadband pricing, and our take on the new guidelines on broadband advertising.

Although we continue to expect broadband subscriber growth to drop, we expect growth to be supported by increasing adoption among older and/or lower income householders, who are becoming more aware of the benefits of going online. We have also increased our residential market share projection for BT Retail, which has gained real momentum over the past year, with brand strength among late adopters and effective marketing of high speed broadband both having an impact.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

Advancing its free-to-air TV project, France’s Canal+ is to buy Bolloré TV’s national channels for €465 million to gain (scarce) licences for FTA terrestrial broadcast

Canal+ plans to leverage its library of original programming to attract upscale audiences, neglected by commercial rivals

However, the Vivendi investment case of a 9% return on capital is built on incompatible assumptions about profit margins and market share – to grow the latter in a mature market, a channel needs to sacrifice the former

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to June 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers. This quarter’s edition includes a first look at high speed broadband subscriber volumes, and our analysis of broadband growth in 2010 based on data recently released by Ofcom.

Highlights for the year 2010 include confirmation of our earlier estimate of a sharp increase in residential subscriber growth, and, despite this, the first ever decline in revenue from residential broadband, due to aggressive pricing of broadband/telephony bundles.

Highlights for the 2011 June quarter include broadband subscribers breaching the 20 million mark, a further decline in broadband market growth, continuing strong broadband subscriber growth at BSkyB and BT Retail, the first ever quarterly declines in cable broadband subscribers and LLU lines, and the first increase in BT Wholesale broadband net additions for four and a half years.

Fiscal 2011 was a vintage year for Sky, which reported a 23% growth in operating profit and 51% increase in free cash flow as it started to reap the full benefits of its investment in multi-product growth

Q4 2011 showed signs that tougher economic conditions are starting to bite, although the sharp fall in TV product additions was balanced by a fourth consecutive bumper quarter in home communications, in which Sky outperformed the rest of the market

Strong focus on operating efficiencies and product innovation combined with big investment in UK originated content should position the company well as competitive pressures build in the medium- to long-term, at the same time as allowing continuing strong profit growth

Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dropped by 0.5ppts to -1.3% in the June quarter, although most of this was due to a sharp MTR cut in the UK

Revenue in Spain was very weak due to a price re-adjustment, but trends elsewhere were broadly positive, with voice minutes growth improving overall

Medium term prospects are good, with MTR cuts fading, competitive performance improving and data growth likely to re-accelerate, but we expect declining growth in Turkey to drive a worse performance in the short term