2014 saw a fall in profits as BSkyB absorbed the £217 million step-up in the annual cost of PL rights and invested £60-70 million in accelerating growth in its connected offerings, but with strong underlying revenue growth pointing to a resurgence of profits in 2015

The annual results release was over-shadowed by the news of BSkyB’s proposal to create Sky Europe through the acquisition of 21C’s shares in Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia, where it sees great opportunities for revenue growth and cost synergies

Taking on a large increase in debt to finance the acquisitions when the next PL auction is about to strike sends out the message that BSkyB management is confident about the state of its business, has a clear view about the value of PL rights, and will not be side-tracked from the pursuit of its broader strategic objectives

The commercial non-PSB sector saw strong growth in share of total TV viewing of close to 40% as the multichannel TV homes universe doubled in the 10 years between the launch of Freeview in October 2002 and completion of digital switchover in October 2012, and even higher 50% growth in SOCI (share of commercial impact) thanks to the higher commercial airtime quotas of the non-main PSB channels

Even during the growth years, non-PSB channels that were present in 2003 felt a squeeze on viewing share and suffered losses as result of numerous channel launches that added to the long tail (Squeeze 1), and strong growth in the PSB families (Squeeze 2), which saw the total PSB share among the Top 25 channels in multichannel TV homes rise from less than 80% to over 90% between January 2003 and January 2014

Today, both the PSB and non- PSB commercial channel groups face the challenge of internet connectivity and increasing population of portable screens (Squeeze 3), and they are experiencing similar rates of decline. Yet, even if overall trends look the same, non-PSB viewing trends show significant variation by channel group and genre, to be explored further in Part 2

After a three-week long “messy and opaque” high drama auction Sky retained its broadcast rights for all Italy’s Serie A games for 2015-18 with a negligible 1% price increase.

Its rival Mediaset managed to keep hold of the top fixtures, but its coverage shrinks by 18% whilst paying 35% more. A deal earlier this year for the Champions’ League rights will add considerably to Mediaset’s total costs.

In the stagnating Italian economy, Sky may manage a return to more comfortable profitability. Mediaset’s pay-TV business model looks much more challenging, even if a new investor were to be lured in.

UK mobile service revenue growth remained relatively healthy at -1.6% in Q1 2014, despite the absence of some favourable one-off factors in the previous quarter, consolidating the improvements seen in 2013. Underlying growth improved a touch to 0.3%, and given that the regulatory impact will drop out next quarter, reported revenue growth may well turn positive in Q2

Service revenue growth among the ‘big three’ has re-converged to around -3% to -4%, with Vodafone improving due to strong recent subscriber gains, and EE worsening slightly after a strong previous quarter. H3G’s growth worsened due to the previous quarter including some one-off benefits, but it remains very strong at 10%, with contract ARPU having stabilised

We expect the market environment to continue to be relatively benign, with the biggest disruptive threats Vodafone, which is currently competing on quality but may become more aggressive on price if it loses patience, and the fixed line operator MVNOs, who have significant distribution disadvantages but nonetheless can harm the market with discounted pricing

Strong growth in the UK economy has created a very positive short term outlook for display advertising, with TV Net Advertising Revenues (NAR) expected to increase by 5% in 2014.

That bright prospect is nonetheless overshadowed by online video advertising, where 2014 is expected to add almost £200 million to the estimated £300 million spent in 2013. YouTube is leading the way, but the TV broadcasters also stand to benefit.

All the indicators point to yet more rapid growth in online video advertising over the next three to five years. So far it has had little apparent impact on TV NAR, but this should change from 2015 as TV and online video become more closely meshed.

Amazon has entered the increasingly crowded digital entertainment TV device marketplace, one which could be strategically more important for the ecommerce giant than tech rivals Apple and Google

The frictionless integration of entertainment and ecommerce on TV represents a bigger consumer milestone than competitor services are offering, and Amazon’s brand has huge appeal, though at present it has less market traction for streaming than it does for other products

Content owners and broadcasters remain the real TV gatekeepers, with integration of TV and digital a service-level pipe dream for now, and so Amazon will likely have to accept being one of many, rather than the runaway winner as it is in books

European mobile service revenue growth again disappointed in Q4, dropping slightly from -8.9% to -9.1%, with underlying revenue growth dropping a little further from -6.0% to -6.3%, again reaching a record low

There had been hopes that improved GDP growth would drive a volume rebound, that price declines would start to annualise out, and that declining out-of-bundle usage would wane in its impact as this usage declined. In the event, ongoing price competition from smaller operators, MVNOs and quad play offerings, combined with surging use of OTT communications platforms, have dominated trends

In the medium term, the development of 4G and Vodafone’s Project Spring may bring some much needed network differentiation back to the market, allowing pricing power to return to the larger operators. However, it will be 2015-2016 before these factors come into play: in the short term, the main source of optimism is consolidation

The French Professional Football League (LFP) is to auction its 2016-20 broadcasting rights next month, one year earlier than expected. The anticipated auction (and short notice) increases pressure on rival LFP broadcasters – a failure to renew their existing rights deals would unsettle their position for over two years

Due to uncertainty over the future ownership of Canal+ and the political background of Al Jazeera’s beIN Sports we believe that both would prefer to maintain the status quo: the top two weekly games on Canal+ and the other eight on beIN Sports

The LFP rights are precisely packaged to prevent this, and to force the two to compete at least for one lot. As the market leader Canal+ has more to lose, while beIN Sports could sustain its current complementary positioning with fewer games

ITV has enjoyed an excellent 2013, which has seen the largest increase in total ITV revenues since the launch of the Transformation plan in 2010 and the fourth consecutive year of double digit growth in EBITA

2014 promises to be another strong year of growth, boosted by a sharp advertising upturn where ITV can expect to outperform the television advertising market, while Online, Pay & Interactive and ITV Studios maintain strong growth as their markets continue to expand

ITV nonetheless faces significant challenges to maintain the business it has built as viewing habits change in an increasingly connected TV landscape with multiple screens and the shape of the ITV Studios business as a result of its domestic and international acquisitions

Explosive growth in take-up of smartphones and tablets means that the effective size of the internet will increase by several multiples within the next few years. This transformation in scale comes with a major change in character and operating dynamics, creating new opportunities and revenue streams.

Twitter is unique amongst social apps: it gives new users a blank canvas in which they can (and must) create their own social network reflecting their own interests, hence building an ‘Interest Graph’, but onboarding new users remains a challenge.

Revenue at Twitter is now on a $600 million annual run-rate, scaling rapidly since the introduction of ‘native ads’, and seems set for further growth: the key question is whether it can achieve breakout user growth and mass market scale.