ITV has enjoyed an excellent 2013, which has seen the largest increase in total ITV revenues since the launch of the Transformation plan in 2010 and the fourth consecutive year of double digit growth in EBITA

2014 promises to be another strong year of growth, boosted by a sharp advertising upturn where ITV can expect to outperform the television advertising market, while Online, Pay & Interactive and ITV Studios maintain strong growth as their markets continue to expand

ITV nonetheless faces significant challenges to maintain the business it has built as viewing habits change in an increasingly connected TV landscape with multiple screens and the shape of the ITV Studios business as a result of its domestic and international acquisitions

Non-subscribers can download this report in full - alongside all our other coverage of the BBC during the Charter Review process - from the 'BBC Charter Review' page of our site.

The Charter Review of the BBC officially opened with the Culture, Media and Sport Committee’s inquiry into the Future of the BBC asking the question “What should the BBC be for and what should be the purpose of public service broadcasting?” The only obvious answer is that the BBC and public service broadcasting should be for the people of Britain, and the BBC rates highly on different measures of public and audience engagement. The BBC plays an irreplaceable role in the supply of PSB programming that UK audiences appreciate, most importantly news, where the BBC accounts for 70% of TV news time and for 22% of online news time in 2013.

Ofcom has been instructed by the UK government to charge the mobile operators ‘full market value’ for the 2G spectrum they have been using for many years, despite there being no liquid market for the spectrum

Ofcom’s general approach to such an imponderable question is eminently sensible, but we disagree with the detail of their methodology on three key aspects, which makes the current proposed charges over three times too high in our view, effectively charging the industry a one-off tax of £4.5bn

The elevated fee levels are (perhaps) still affordable on their own, but coupled with other recent regulatory decisions the UK is in danger of being seen as a hostile regulatory environment, with negative consequences for future investment levels

Richard Desmond’s appointment of Barclays to explore the sale of the Channel 5 Group in 2013 has fuelled speculation over prospective purchasers should Northern & Shell be intent on selling this asset

The reported target of at least £700 million, seven times the £103.5 million paid by Northern & Shell to RTL three years ago, reflects a strong performance in 2013, but needs to be against several distinctive factors, including Channel 5’s near total reliance on advertising and the cross-promotional benefits it gains from the Northern & Shell print publications

Regulatory and strategic considerations suggest that neither ITV nor the pay-TV platform operators, Sky and BT, are likely to emerge as serious bidders and that an overseas group from the US is the most likely outcome if a sale is to take place

Ofcom will announce at the end of June the new terms for ITV to operate the analogue portion of its broadcast licence for ITV1. According to Ofcom's own statements, it is obliged to estimate the full value of ITV’s operation of the analogue ITV1 service and then extract all this value – bar some profit and other small allowances – in the form of annual licence payments. To do so, Ofcom has announced a methodology based on what the winning broadcaster would bid in a hypothetical competitive tender. In order to estimate the licence payments, analysts must grapple with the highly complex tasks of inferring the model from Ofcom's description and establishing the inputs.

An eventual merger is possible but difficult, especially given Hutchison Whampoa’s inflated view of H3G Italia’s value, considering it worth about the same as Wind itself, which is double the size and actually makes a profit (unlike H3G Italia)

Nonetheless, this does create a possible exit should H3G Italia’s planned Q1 2006 IPO fail, with the consolidation likely to benefit all players in the Italian market. H3G UK does not enjoy such an option, and is struggling more on a stand-alone basis to boot

Last week Enders Analysis interviewed David Elstein. Elstein is leading a team attempting to put in place a new management at ITV in the event that the merger is allowed by the Competition Commission. This note carries his views on the remedies likely to be imposed by the Commission and also on the scope for cost savings and improvements in business strategy at the merged group.

The ITV Merger

The public debate about the ITV merger has revolved around whether the maintenance of two separate sales houses is the appropriate remedy to be imposed by any Competition Commission inquiry. We argue that the real issues are more complex.

This report picks apart the evidence on why ITV1 is rapidly losing audience share. It shows that more intense competition in terrestrial homes is the key reason, not the impact of the growth of the multichannel universe. The decline of ITV1 is across all times of day and almost all demographic groups. Can ITV turn itself around in the face of this secular decline in audiences?