Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn
SpaceX and its Starlink satellite network have made headlines dangling a vision of free emergency service coverage direct to all mobile devices, undoubtedly connected to its ongoing battles for FCC approval.
Starlink is the clear leader in the D2D space and almost certainly will be the first to launch its service. AST Space Mobile, backed by various mobile operators (including Vodafone) is lagging significantly behind, having not yet launched any commercial satellites.
The UK is however a relatively unfavourable geography for D2D, due to its high latitude and relative density, and we don't expect any launch of commercial service in the UK by Starlink or AST Space Mobile before 2026.
The UK’s choice of policy for rebalancing the relationships between news publishers and tech platforms is on the agenda of the CMA’s Digital Markets Unit for 2025. The UK is expected to steer clear of the pitfalls of Canada’s news bargaining regime, which led Meta to block news, crashing referrals.
In the UK, Google’s relationships with news publishers are much deeper than referrals, including advertising and market-specific voluntary arrangements that support a robust supply of journalism, and dovetail with the industry’s focus on technology (including AI) and distribution.
The rise of generative AI has also ignited the news industry’s focus on monetising the use of its content in LLMs. AI products could threaten the prominence, usage and positive public perceptions of journalism—this might require progress in journalism’s online infrastructure, supported by public policy.
Google has permanently shelved the 2025 deadline for removing all third-party cookies from Chrome, but publishers should prepare for much higher rates of users blocking cookies.
The online economy is still moving towards more privacy and user controls on the major platforms, with Android the next target for the Privacy Sandbox.
Regulators are increasingly setting the terms online, limiting Google's freedom of movement, and with the conflict between competition and user privacy protections defining the next phase of the internet.
The EU is investigating Apple over its Digital Markets Act (DMA) compliance strategy, including its tight control over app distribution via the App Store. More open choices for apps would be a boon to media providers and consumers.
Apple is defending its ability to profit from its iPhone ecosystem, a vital principle for future growth. AI is also being dragged into the battle, as Europe misses out on Apple Intelligence, at least for now.
The EU legislated early and perhaps clumsily, but the rest of the world is matching the substance. The UK has just passed its new digital markets regulation, and mobile ecosystems will be a key early target for regulator scrutiny.
Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.
The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.
The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.
AI integration into production tools throughout media industries will deliver increased productivity for professional content creation. Generally available tools will also improve quality and production speed for individual user-creators.
Roadblocks include the uncertain copyright status of models and their outputs, attitudes of creative workers and consumers, and the AI tech underdelivering versus what was promised. The need to integrate new tools into existing processes is perhaps the biggest brake.
There are stark differences by sector: the opportunities are greatest in games, where costs have ballooned and software engineering is core. Marketing is furthest in exploiting AI, while audiovisual production is more cautious.
On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe.
With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.
This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.
This report is free to access
The UK charity sector’s role in sustaining the fabric of communities is increasingly important as poverty spreads during the worst cost-of living crisis since the 1970s, at the same time as donations are weaker and costs are rising.
Media play a crucial role in raising the awareness, engagement and donations to charities by individuals, the bedrock of income. Selected case studies of TV, radio and the press show how charities leverage their unique qualities to engage audiences across the UK.
We highlight Gordon Brown’s landmark anti-poverty community-based Multibank initiative, which gifts essentials to those most in need, and has vital support from Sky, the Financial Times and News UK.
Vodafone's promise of growth from FY26 has credibility given some headwinds specific to FY25 and some tailwinds emerging thereafter.
In the meantime, the issues over the coming year extend beyond TV losses—with fixed in Germany proving difficult to turn around and the challenge from diminishing in-contract price increases is a significant one (for many telcos).
Currency movements continue to absorb all notional growth (and some) and look set to continue to do so next year. With the company's FCF just half what it was two years ago, it is little wonder that Vodafone halved its dividend payout.