We forecast broadcaster viewing to shrink to below half of total video viewing by 2028 (48%)—down from 64% today—as streaming services gain share of long-form viewing time.

On the key advertising battleground of the TV set, broadcasters will still retain scale with a 63% viewing share by 2028, even as SVOD and YouTube double their impact.

Short-form video will continue to displace long-form as video-first apps (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) gain further popularity and others (e.g. Facebook, Instagram) continue a relentless pivot to video. This will expand the amount of video watched and transition habits—even amongst older demographics.

UK news publishers have rushed to distribute content on TikTok. They are drawn by its enormous young audience, but poor monetisation and data sharing, a lack of referrals to their own sites, and data security concerns are frustrating a full embrace of the platform.

TikTok is increasingly identified as a ‘news source’ by young people: a risk to publishers distributing content on the platform is that their brands may get lost in user feeds.

Publishers should view activity on TikTok as a strategic cost instead of a revenue source: an investment in brand awareness, and development in content and delivery formats that are becoming more widespread across platforms. Brand visibility is key to success here.

ITV’s external revenues increased 8% in 2022, driven by a big boost from Studios (+19%, £2.01 billion) with COVID overhang now appearing to be a thing of the past. Total advertising revenue (TAR) was down just 1% on last year’s record highs

ITVX had a successful launch, leveraging big audiences for the World Cup to drive awareness and use of the service. We will have to wait and see what effect ITV’s aggressive new content windowing strategy will have on linear viewing

Guidance is that Q1 2023 TAR will be down 11%, with April down between 10% and 15%. TV advertising should recover later in the year, but we are forecasting that the total market will be marginally down

With major studios arguably over-indexed on SVOD, the stickier experiences of interactive entertainment and the metaverse will eventually form a critical pillar of studio D2C strategy, boosting subscription services and tying in closely with consumer products and theme parks.

Disney’s appointment of a Chief Metaverse Officer is good first step, demonstrating a strategic interest in the space. But other major studios remain cautious and distracted, with limited capability beyond licensing to engage in the metaverse for the next 24 months and possibly longer.

Meta will need to provide a strong guiding hand creatively and technically to ensure its new partnership with NBCUniversal is a success, and to evangelise the metaverse and its revenue model across the Hollywood studio content space.

The pandemic years boosted many businesses selling services on subscription in the UK: work-from-home gave people more time and money to widen the services they enjoyed in the home, such as gaming, entertainment and music, also boosting engagement with trusted news

The cost-of-living crisis dented the number of subscribers to OTT SVOD and news services in Q2 2022. Broadband and mobile are must-have; bundles of services (e.g. Sky’s pay-TV and broadband or mobile) are more resilient; yearly and multi-year contracts prevent churn relative to monthly contracts; and services that cater to passions (e.g. football) are always need-to-have

Subscription (or supporter) media and news services reaped the demand for trusted news through the pandemic, but now face a tough challenge to their toplines from the economic downturn—and also to transition to a sustainable business model for media audiences, while advertisers are also feeling the heat

Some prominent news media—notably the Financial Times, Guardian and New York Times—generate most of their consumer revenue online, shining a light on the industry’s long-term sustainability

Many newsbrands are also moving towards two-thirds reader funding, one-third advertising, emphasising that their business, not just their operating purpose, is journalism; where relevant, the legacy of the advertising boom period (1980s to mid 2000s) is finally shaking off

Perhaps most importantly, an extraordinary decade of transformation has instilled executive and cultural confidence at the top end of the market. Realising the same outcome for popular, local and magazine media will require even more radical transformation—but positive  signals are emerging

The Times and the Sunday Times have posted a record operating profit of £44.7 million, the highest (in nominal terms) since 1990, doubling a strong 2020

All the Times’ online metrics are going in the right direction, partly reflecting a favourable news agenda, but also a renewed energy, imagination and working rhythm galvanised by a new team and structure                                            

Reader economies are gathering momentum, at least among the quality press, and there are also hopeful signals among local and magazine media. Signs of reader subscription fatigue are supply-side rather than demand-driven—publishers should double down on their mission and purpose

ITV is combining its three domestic digital services—ITV Hub, Hub+ and BritBox—into a single product, ITVX, which will have a free and paid tier and see the addition of FAST channels. It will launch in Q4

The Hub and BritBox UK have underwhelmed in their respective markets, hampered by the broadcaster favouring linear revenues and the competitiveness posed by the surfeit of free British content. ITV is looking to change this direction, with shifts in content windowing and some additional content spend

Total external revenues were up 24% YoY in 2021 (and up 4% on 2019) to £3,450 million, driven by the highest advertising revenue on record, however Studios has not yet returned to pre-COVID levels, with both revenues (£1,760 million) and margin (12%) still down on 2019 (£1,830 million and 15%, respectively)

Sky’s performance across 2021 significantly improved, driven in Q4 by a nice c.5% growth rate in UK consumer revenues and the advertising rebound, but effects of the pandemic are still being felt with EBITDA down 30% on 2019.

The decline in Group revenue accelerated in Q4 due to the severe shock to the Italian operation from its loss of most premium football coverage, although we see upsides in a possible rights reshuffle.

In 2022, Sky can leverage growth vectors including bigger content bundles, Glass, advertising innovations and broadband. Consolidating SVOD and telecoms markets may be more favourable to price increases.

ITV’s H1 advertising revenues were up 29% YoY—and up 2% compared to 2019—to £866 million, with the Euros and an improving market ushering in the biggest June ever for the broadcaster. Studios revenues rose 26% (to £798 million), which was 5% better than 2019

ITV’s new deal with Sky provides clarity around the relationship between the two companies, with ITV soon able to dynamically serve ads on both downloaded content and linear channels (but apparently not via Sky Adsmart) on Sky Q. By the end of 2022, the full ITV Hub app will be available on Sky Q

BritBox—which was not part of the Sky deal—has shown muted growth in the UK (adding 55k in H1 to 555k subscribers), while over the same period, international subscriptions lifted 18% (to 2 million)