Ofcom is proposing to design the 800MHz and 2.6GHz spectrum auctions to ensure that the UK mobile market remains at four players, through a complex set of rules largely designed to help H3G get the spectrum it needs to remain competitive

However, the sting in the tale is that Ofcom expects H3G to pay around £600m for this spectrum, which it may not want to do, and it is not clear what the backup plan would then be

We expect the general theme of regulators seeking to protect a fourth player to repeat across Europe and across regulatory areas, especially as the US market may consolidate towards three with AT&T’s proposed takeover of T-Mobile USA

European mobile revenue growth improved very slightly in Q4 2010, up by 0.1ppt in reported and 0.2ppts in underlying terms, but remained negative

While the improvement is welcome, growth remains very subdued compared to pre-recession levels, especially in Italy and Spain, which continue to lag the growth of the UK, Germany and France

The outlook for mobile revenue growth is bleak, with severe MTR cuts in Germany and the UK likely to drive growth down again over the next six months

2010 marked the recovery of lost ground since 2006 as ITV outperformed the TV advertising market, which saw year-on-year growth of 14-15%, and delivered £40 million in cost savings as well as benefitting from a further £20 million reduction in Channel 3 licence payments

The short term outlook for continued advertising revenue growth in 2011 looks promising in spite of the risks of renewed downturn due to uncertainties about the economy and retail spend

ITV’s five year transformation plan is now more clearly sign posted. The company seems to be taking the right steps, though it will take another year or two before the results start to show

Q1 2011 TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) has delivered strong year-on-year growth of about 8%, yet the monthly variations are large, with a predictably sharp decrease in March based on past year comparatives countered by a large Christmas-style upswing in the Easter and Royal Wedding month of April

After several years of decoupling total display and TV advertising trends from those in the broader economy due to negative structural causes, the underlying positive correlations are expected to reappear as the structural factors subdue

The general economic outlook suggests stable growth in TV NAR during 2011 of about 5%, remaining flat to marginally positive in real terms beyond 2011 as long as conditions of weak economic growth last, but with significant risks of a sudden sharp downturn in the short to medium term

Kangaroo, the BBC/ITV/Channel 4 VOD project, looks unlikely to see the light of day any time soon, based on the Competition Commission’s (CC) provisional findings announced on 3rd December

The consultation period for the second phase of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review closes on 4th December 2008. The central issue before Ofcom is that the current PSB model is broken, lacking the flexibility to “adapt to audiences’ evolving needs”. The primary concern lies with the commercial sector, which is under increasing strain to deliver its PSB commitments due to structural changes in the television medium that have been compounded by the present economic crisis. This presentation sets out our views about the role of structural changes in restraining TV net advertising revenues (NAR) growth in recent years along with our latest TV forecasts to 2013. Whilst some of the current downward pressures on TV NAR may be expected to ease, a new structural change that threatens the commercial PSB sector is the growing chasm between BBC investment in its PSB services and the advertising revenues of ITV, Channel 4 and Five

We have downgraded our short-term forecasts of TV NAR (net advertising revenue) growth from -5% to -5.75% for 2008 and from -3% to -6% for 2009 in light of the worsening economic conditions and early indications of Q4 advertising spend

H3G Group’s H1 2008 results showed static revenue and EBITDA slipping back into negative territory, neither of which bode well for the company’s target of being EBIT positive next year

2005 was an all time high for total TV net advertising revenues (NAR), even if ITV1, the leading commercial channel, had peaked the year before. 2008 is now proving particularly nasty for everyone as budgets take a plunge in the second half of the year, while expectations are growing that things will only get worse in 2009. This presentation sets out our latest five-year forecasts of total TV and ITV plc NAR, taking into account latest market trading expectations for September and October 2008 and trends in the economy

ITV interim results for 2008 confirmed expectations of a sharp downturn in H1 profits combined with dire predictions for net advertising revenues in the second half of the year, although ITV has so far succeeded in outperforming the rest of the commercial sector in 2008