A post-Brexit recession will cause a hyper-cyclical decline in the advertising revenues of broadcasters and publishers

The Vote Leave idea of the UK joining a free trade area for goods with the EU would sever UK access to the Single Market for services, damaging the export-reliant audiovisual group, among many other sectors of strength

Made-in-the-UK IT, software and computer consultancy services will lose eligibility for government procurement tenders once the UK is an outsider to the EU

On TV, UK public service broadcasters (PSBs) have operated within a privileged ecosystem; a guaranteed electronic programme guide (EPG) prominence placing their channels at the forefront, helping sustain their market share and spawning digital families

But technological changes within the TV set are eroding this prominence, and on devices, such structural advantages are non-existent

To confront dramatically falling mobile engagement, despite consistently excellent content, the PSBs need to collaborate and replicate their privileged linear position or they will struggle against the major SVOD players

ITV has delivered double-digit growth in adjusted EBITA for the sixth year running, marked by big increases in both TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) and non-TV NAR revenues, which now make up nearly 50% of the total

The outlook for 2016 is promising. We expect continuing real growth in ITV family NAR in line with the market average, and further substantial increases in both Online, Pay & Interactive and ITV Studios

The big question is how ITV can sustain all it has achieved with the international expansion of ITV Studios and use its growing scale to support growth in its Online, Pay & Interactive revenues abroad as well as in the UK

Today ITV officially rejected NTL's bid, currently worth around 120 pence/share with, among others, the consequence that Sir Peter Burt will have to continue to show up for meetings at ITV for the foreseeable future

Although NTL could use ITV programming to improve its competitiveness, it is difficult to see how yet another acquisition could be justified, given the managerial and financial burden that would result. Nevertheless, we believe that NTL will move heaven and earth to acquire ITV and is deeply serious in its intentions

Having experienced an almost straight-line decline in its audience, ITV1’s 20% share of total viewing in 2006 is about half of what it was in 1992. Although the causes of this dramatic decline have varied, the result has always been the same. When and where will it end? ITV1 Viewing Decline: Causes and Prospects [2006-63] examines the most recent viewing trends, starting in January 2003 and coinciding with the launch of review. This period has seen especially rapid digital growth, with almost 80% of the population now able to receive digital TV channels at home, compared with just over 50% at the start of 2003

Under mounting competitive pressure from Sky, NTL needs to reinforce its position in content and has approached ITV about a possible combination

Ten years of fierce and implacable rivalry between Canal+ Group and TPS, the two French pay-TV operators, is expected to end in November 2006, when they close their merger deal and Canal+ France emerges. This report examines the strategic rationale for pay-TV consolidation in the French TV market, where digital terrestrial TV has recently launched and where TV-over-DSL is rapidly being deployed, as well as the potential for the currently low pay-TV margins to rise

Total TV advertising expenditure is expected to fall between 4% and 7% in 2006. ITV1 will suffer most, with a projected fall in NAR of around 13-14%, but the rest of the TV industry is also starting to feel the pain

ITV plc national advertising revenues (NAR) from ITV1 fell by £50 million in 2005. This was caused chiefly by a loss of more than 6% in weighted share of commercial impacts in 2004, which enables a proportionately similar reduction in 2005 ITV1 NAR under the CRR remedy. It was offset by total TV NAR growth of about 2.5% in 2005 

BT is clearly positioning its new, 21CN-based wholesale services as an economically viable alternative to both DIY and wholesale LLU