Music publishing revenues are trending up in a broad sustainable manner across the US, Europe and Japan, underpinned by longstanding music rights regimes
Purchasing is down and streaming taking off, driving a mechanical to performance transition, with direct licensing of Anglo-American repertoire in Europe as in the US
Public performance revenues collected by PROs are also rising as live music grows, general business conditions improve, while TV audiences remain resilient
TV viewing has one reliable, long term trend: programme genres are watched by consumers at predictable life stages and ages
At a high level, there has been little manipulation of the balance of genres being broadcast. But amongst the sub-genres, editorial optimisation has resulted in an uptick in actual viewing
As the core viewing age of linear television rises, there is an opportunity for broadcasters to leverage this to create the most desirable schedule for their available audience by daypart; with genres that transcend demographics when younger viewers tune in
The decline in print display advertising in national newspapers accelerated to -16% in 2015, while growth in digital advertising is slowing, and will be unable to offset revenue decline for the foreseeable future.
We believe this decline is structural and irreversible, continuing at a sharper pace than before despite the recovery in the UK economy in 2013-2015, and very different from the cyclical decline of 2009.
Publishers must convince brands and agencies that in the mobile era their superior content environments have added value. If scale newsrooms are to survive, costs must be reduced through collaboration and outsourcing.
Google Home will compete against Amazon’s Echo in the contest to supply voice-activated home hubs to US homes
Google claims Home is better at voice-based search due to its superior capabilities; pricing is unknown, but is likely to be at par with Echo ($179)
Prime, Fire devices and media services are competitive advantages for Amazon in the US that will make it hard for Google Home to succeed there
Short form video is growing. It is easy to create, share and, with the rise of mobile technology, incorporate within communication
But despite the novel flexibility that mobile technology offers, the actual video most desired is surprisingly traditional
Buzzy, short form content fills gaps that have always existed; yet, despite the hype, it will remain supplementary to long-form programming
On TV, UK public service broadcasters (PSBs) have operated within a privileged ecosystem; a guaranteed electronic programme guide (EPG) prominence placing their channels at the forefront, helping sustain their market share and spawning digital families
But technological changes within the TV set are eroding this prominence, and on devices, such structural advantages are non-existent
To confront dramatically falling mobile engagement, despite consistently excellent content, the PSBs need to collaborate and replicate their privileged linear position or they will struggle against the major SVOD players
European mobile service revenue growth was flat at -0.8%, while underlying country movements were somewhat more dramatic. The key highlights were Italy returning to positive growth driven by pricing stability, and France showing worsening growth decline for the first time in over two years impacted by challenger telco pricing cuts
An assessment of these challenger telcos highlights a somewhat precarious position, as continued price aggression yields diminishing incremental gains, and they all remain some way from gaining the scale to achieve profitability
The only incentive for challengers to remain aggressive is as an encouragement for their competitors to buy them; increasing regulatory hurdles to consolidation would remove even this incentive, leaving price increases as their only rational route to profitability
Record growth in 2015 shows Netflix to be well on its way to achieving its goal of 60-90 million US streaming customers, while the latest wave of international expansion suggests Netflix will at least double its global base to over 150 million streaming customers by 2020
Much has been said about the growing SVOD competition from Amazon, Hulu, HBO, Disney and many others, but the simplicity and single-mindedness of the Netflix model is hard to beat, with evidence suggesting it has extended its lead in the toughest of markets, the US
Although growing spend on content origination is putting a strain on the Netflix business, it is critical to long-term success, contributing to the distinctiveness of the Netflix offer and its complementariness with other SVOD services
Netflix gained 1.8 million accounts in the course of 2015 (+37%) to 5.2 million, surpassing the 1.3 million VOD-enabled homes added by fixed line telcos Sky (including NowTV), Virgin Media, BT and TalkTalk. SVOD homes overlap with pay-TV accounts, and are topping up content for family members, not cord-cutting
Amazon Prime Instant Video, bundled into Prime, looks set to balloon from 1.6 million users in Q4 2015 on the back of the marketing of Jeremy Clarkson's motoring show, cementing its position in home entertainment by serving a family-friendly eco-system of devices and media, leveraging its mammoth 25% share of UK e-commerce
Free-to-the-user YouTube remains the heavyweight with 35 million monthly unique users in the UK, although skewing strongly to Millennials, while those 55+ will take longer to move beyond catch-up TV to embrace a wider range of VOD options