2023 was a challenge for Channel 4: with the advertising market failing to recover after a difficult start, the unpredictability led to an unexpected YoY drop in content expenditure

In 2024, advertising revenue is expected to be flat, which provides a more stable planning base. Recent volatility has tested the broadcaster’s flexibility and proactiveness, above its competitors who are more insulated

To that end, Channel 4’s process of diversifying its business—the difficulties of 2023 show that it needs to be supported in these endeavours if the sector wants a consistent return of benefits

We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.

SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.

On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030

Off the back of the Euros, ITV’s advertising revenue grew in H1 (+10% to £889 million) but this was not enough to balance a drop in Studios revenue, which declined 13% (to £869 million), hit by phasing and a tough market

Nonetheless, profits were up on a very tough 2023, with group adjusted EBITA rising 40% to £213 million, as cost-cutting proved successful—total costs were down 7% YoY

ITVX is moving from its launch phase to one of consolidation, with a changing approach to content release and an increasingly nuanced relationship with its array of users

Live sport is the most resilient component of broadcast TV, with viewing almost flat as other genres suffer steep declines.

Football has extended its lead as the most-watched sport, amid record Premier League audiences, while cricket has overtaken rugby and tennis for second place.

The reach of sport on pay-TV has remained strong despite consumer spend pressures, further eroding free-to-air’s share of sports viewing.

Streaming profitability beckons, but owes much to the profitable services folded into companies’ DTC segments alongside the headline streamers.

There is a broader move towards bundling and price rises. The former bolsters subscriber additions and lifetime value but is ARPU-dilutive, while price rises will bump up both ARPU and churn.

2024 marks the first year with multiple players at scale in the ad space, as Prime Video entered the market. Other streamers with high CPMs and lower scale may be forced to re-examine their offerings.

As viewing moves online, broadcasters’ on-demand players make up a growing proportion of viewing, becoming central to their future strategies.

However, even though SVOD viewing might have begun to plateau, BVOD growth cannot yet balance the decline of linear broadcast.

Of this shrinking pie, 2023 saw most of the major broadcast players increase their viewing shares.

Germany’s RTL+ streaming platform has been revamped into an 'all-in-one' bundle of content including premium sports, music and audiobooks.

RTL wants to leverage its FTA reach to build an online subscription base large enough to influence the future shape of German TV.

To sustain subscriber growth we argue that RTL will need to release defining content and explore partnerships beyond its current deals with telcos.

Public service broadcasters are in a position to plan for the long term with commercial licences renewed for ten years, an updated prominence regime via the Media Bill and a government broadly supportive of the BBC.

With the Premier League and EFL rights secure to the end of the decade, Sky can plan for the future from a position of strength.

Relationships between Sky and the PSBs have improved markedly recently, and as all can now plan for the long-term, this should provide further opportunities to cement relationships for the benefit of the broadcasting ecosystem and viewers.

Dramas from the public service broadcasters based on books consistently bring in bigger audiences than those that are not, a trend driven by certain genres, especially detective mysteries and thrillers.

A greater volume of newer book IP is being developed into programming, but this preference is not necessarily reflected in audience figures.                                 

Younger demographics are less enamoured with dramas based on books than older viewers. There are however notable exceptions, while attracting younger audiences may have more to do with the age, genre, and fame of the IP.