Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
 

Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
 

Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn
 

The UK’s choice of policy for rebalancing the relationships between news publishers and tech platforms is on the agenda of the CMA’s Digital Markets Unit for 2025. The UK is expected to steer clear of the pitfalls of Canada’s news bargaining regime, which led Meta to block news, crashing referrals.

In the UK, Google’s relationships with news publishers are much deeper than referrals, including advertising and market-specific voluntary arrangements that support a robust supply of journalism, and dovetail with the industry’s focus on technology (including AI) and distribution.

The rise of generative AI has also ignited the news industry’s focus on monetising the use of its content in LLMs. AI products could threaten the prominence, usage and positive public perceptions of journalism—this might require progress in journalism’s online infrastructure, supported by public policy.

Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.

The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.

The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.

With traffic from Facebook and X to news publishers’ destinations in decline, distribution is shifting to other platforms where they have more control, such as feeds served on WhatsApp and newsletters on LinkedIn

There is no one silver bullet platform to replace Facebook, on which certain publishers became overly reliant, or X. News publishers are trying out a myriad of platforms to see which work best for the specific audiences and use-cases they are cultivating

WhatsApp and LinkedIn are still platforms that are mediated for news publishers, so risks remain. These platforms have highly differentiated alignment with the needs of enterprises producing journalism
 

Service revenue took a dip in Q4 to 1.5% as a waning price rise impact in the UK combined with the loss of positive one-offs in Germany.

We expect growth to slow further through 2024 as many operators implement lower index-linked price rises which are also coming under increasing regulatory scrutiny.

Vodafone has made progress on its turnaround plan—striking deals for its Italian and Spanish units—but it is not yet out of the woods, with ongoing challenges in Germany and approval still uncertain in the UK.

Magazines are in the final phase of industrial-scale print volumes, with the era of artisan print magazines already highly visible and blooming, celebrating the reader’s tangible experience of the design and rich content, drawn by the brand’s authority.

Publishers’ online revenue models have diversified by attracting third-party sources—advertisers, campaign partners and affiliates—alongside a relatively tepid commitment to audience-led revenue models, with exceptions.

Publishers seeking a sustainable digital future by circa 2030 will need to focus more on audiences than on advertisers, leveraging core brands across multiple channels to build community, with print playing a narrower, lucrative and much-loved role.

Service revenue growth was broadly flat this quarter as some unwinding of price increases was compensated by a pickup in roaming revenues.

Vodafone has made some progress on its turnaround plan: it has sold its ailing Spanish unit; is rumoured to be in talks about a deal in Italy; and its German business is (just) back to growth (for now).

We expect muted guidance for 2024 with lower prospective price increases for most, inflated cost bases, and continued consolidation uncertainty.

Service revenue growth dipped by 0.7ppts to 1.2% this quarter—a slightly disappointing performance given the price rises implemented in some markets.

The impact of price increases has been mixed, with little revenue benefit in France, somewhat better in Spain, and a shift to Iliad in Italy.

Q2 should be stronger, with the UK price rises kicking in, the promise of a turnaround from Vodafone Germany, but a waning of price rise benefits elsewhere.

Service revenue growth was flat at 1.9% this quarter—a reasonable performance considering waning boosts from roaming and UK price rises, and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

Looking ahead, operators in most markets are now implementing price rises, providing a welcome (albeit transitory) tailwind to revenue growth—although EBITDA momentum remains subdued.

We expect a consolidation deal to be announced between Vodafone UK and H3G in the coming weeks and a decision from the EC on the Orange/MásMóvil deal in August—crucial issues for the sector’s prospects.

The post-pandemic recovery has lifted vacancies to a high of 1.27 million, at critical levels in hospitality and health—sectors impacted by the exodus of EU workers. We expect recruitment advertising for private sector roles to have risen 13% in 2022 to £746 million (noting base effects from lockdown in H1 2021), and will decline c.4% in 2023.

LinkedIn dominates recruitment advertising directed at professionals, leveraging its free global networking service. Indeed anchors the other end of the skills spectrum, which is low value and high volume, aggregating openings to create a scale proposition for jobseekers, using technology to target and match them with employers.

Specialists are surviving Indeed’s technology-driven business model by relying on human expertise and ancillary HR services to differentiate. Agencies continue to specialise in supplying workers to large employers for temporary positions. News publishers have retained a small but dwindling slice of recruitment advertising.