H3G Europe improved its revenue growth and margins in 2010, albeit not by as much as its headline figures claimed. It is currently growing at 5% with EBIT at around breakeven
Given that its parent company is likely to want to keep EBIT positive, it is likely to be constrained on future investment in subscriber growth, limiting its potential going forward
The UK was particularly strong, with dramatically improved contract subscriber growth, and margins improving despite this, driven by the completion of the T-Mobile network share implementation helping margins and the smartphone revolution playing to the company’s 3G network strengths
Ofcom is proposing to design the 800MHz and 2.6GHz spectrum auctions to ensure that the UK mobile market remains at four players, through a complex set of rules largely designed to help H3G get the spectrum it needs to remain competitive
However, the sting in the tale is that Ofcom expects H3G to pay around £600m for this spectrum, which it may not want to do, and it is not clear what the backup plan would then be
We expect the general theme of regulators seeking to protect a fourth player to repeat across Europe and across regulatory areas, especially as the US market may consolidate towards three with AT&T’s proposed takeover of T-Mobile USA
European mobile revenue growth improved very slightly in Q4 2010, up by 0.1ppt in reported and 0.2ppts in underlying terms, but remained negative
While the improvement is welcome, growth remains very subdued compared to pre-recession levels, especially in Italy and Spain, which continue to lag the growth of the UK, Germany and France
The outlook for mobile revenue growth is bleak, with severe MTR cuts in Germany and the UK likely to drive growth down again over the next six months
Canal+ France has issued a prospectus in view of the April flotation of Lagardère’s 20% stake, which could still reach an agreement to sell with majority owner Vivendi
The prospectus provides a unique insight on the performance of Canal+, which has increased ARPU and profitability in the past three years, despite erosion of its subscriber base due to competitive pressures and the recession
Management’s revenue and profit targets for 2013 appear within reach, and we also see potential upsides
Q1 2011 TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) has delivered strong year-on-year growth of about 8%, yet the monthly variations are large, with a predictably sharp decrease in March based on past year comparatives countered by a large Christmas-style upswing in the Easter and Royal Wedding month of April
After several years of decoupling total display and TV advertising trends from those in the broader economy due to negative structural causes, the underlying positive correlations are expected to reappear as the structural factors subdue
The general economic outlook suggests stable growth in TV NAR during 2011 of about 5%, remaining flat to marginally positive in real terms beyond 2011 as long as conditions of weak economic growth last, but with significant risks of a sudden sharp downturn in the short to medium term
H3G’s X-Series is not quite as innovative as it was presented to be, given that T-Mobile’s Web ‘n’ Walk is very similar in concept (flat rate data tariffs, 3rd party Internet services) and has been available since June 2005
Ten years of fierce and implacable rivalry between Canal+ Group and TPS, the two French pay-TV operators, is expected to end in November 2006, when they close their merger deal and Canal+ France emerges. This report examines the strategic rationale for pay-TV consolidation in the French TV market, where digital terrestrial TV has recently launched and where TV-over-DSL is rapidly being deployed, as well as the potential for the currently low pay-TV margins to rise
Vivendi Q1 2006 quarterly results show solid underlying improvement in earnings, but disappointing subscription figures, which fell by 40,000 in the quarter
We regard meeting even this extended deadline as difficult given their slowing growth, churn problems and the increasing network costs associated with their network outsourcing deals, and furthermore EBITDA is unlikely to improve significantly from 2007 onwards