President Trump will likely impose much higher tariffs on most imported goods, which could ignite retaliation by major trading partners and reverse decades of post-war globalisation.

America's biggest tech brands are vulnerable: we assess $570 billion of exposure to sales in China and the Chinese supply chain for six large companies generating over $2 trillion in revenue. 

Apple and Tesla are major investors in China to supply that market, and demand for their products could be blown off course by a wave of anti-US sentiment.   

Big tech capex is set to jump over 50% in 2024, fueling the current AI boom, and supporting the training and deployment of the next-generation of frontier models slated for release over the next 2-4 months

If these frontier models can deliver greater capabilities, and the returns to match, it will intensify the race to scale up capex even further to train ever more powerful models on ever larger clusters of chips

If returns do not flow to the frontier, then models become commoditised, with all of big tech able to capitalise on their application layer dominance. If they do, then outcomes are uneven and uncertain with the core cloud players racing for dominance and leaving the others behind

UK football rights values have pulled further away from European peers in a stagnant market, as telcos have withdrawn and tech companies remain selective bidders.

Sky and Canal+ have tied down key contracts until towards the end of the decade, while DAZN now has domestic rights for four of the top five European football leagues.

Tech players want live sport, but have distinctive demands and without new monetisation models they will not challenge pay-TV incumbents.

We analysed hundreds of ads on YouTube, the biggest online video platform. Direct response campaigns predominate, especially among finance, ecommerce and technology buyers.

YouTube on TV hosts more brand campaigns with unskippable >30-second ads. In the UK, YouTube viewing on the TV set will grow c.80% by 2030, changing the profile of YouTube advertising.

YouTube generates about 85% of its revenue from ads. We found it also guides user behaviour by ramping up ad load for logged-out users so that they log in.

The spatial computing ecosystem is on the uptick with the wider availability of head mounted devices (HMD). Apple and Meta’s commitment to developing HMDs is existential to conquer the enormous technical hurdles these devices continue to face. 

Apple has chosen to maroon the Vision Pro with a lack of controllers and other design choices making it reliant on mostly passive entertainment. In total contrast, Meta’s deep engagement in gaming and 3D experiences showcases the potential for the HMD category.

Live sports is the outstanding use case for TV experiences on VR headsets, with exclusive NBA VR programming on Quest bringing new levels of immersion and presence, while gaming, and its developers, will still remain the dominant driver for VR and MR for the rest of the decade.

In the past, broadcast TV and YouTube content has been poles apart—both in substance and the need states they served. This is changing, with the overlap in offerings growing 

We estimate that c.61% of viewing of YouTube Trending content is of videos that could be considered TV-like. Similar programming makes up c.35% of broadcast TV viewing 

YouTube’s videos are also becoming longer, raising audience tolerance and expectations, and allowing the service to compete in a broader range of genres. However, this will be challenged by monetisation limitations

Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions 

Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating 

Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream

Sony PlayStation 5 and Microsoft Xbox unit sales crashed in the last quarter, despite promotional discounting. Neither company appears able to reverse a clear consumer shift away from fixed consoles. 

Nintendo Switch outsold Xbox and nearly matched PlayStation sales, even with the Switch 2 set to launch in 2025. 

A radical change in hardware strategy and leadership will be the best solution for Microsoft to demonstrate a growth narrative following its acquisition of Activision. Gamescom this month may provide more clues.

We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.

SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.

On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030

The US National Basketball Association has awarded its global broadcasting rights to Disney, Comcast and Amazon for $76 billion over eleven years.

The NBA is helping pioneer a new era of rights deals, by agreeing global contracts and a strategic DTC partnership with Amazon.

Sport stands at the crossroad of Amazon’s video, advertising and retail strategies.