The essential conclusion of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review is that the present commercial PSB model is unsustainable in the digital age. The Ofcom solution of fixing on Channel 4 as the “alternative, commercial PSB voice”, while freeing up the Channel 3 and 5 licensees from most of their PSB obligations, still leaves a major funding gap

A particularly attractive solution is some kind of synergy-generating merger/JV/partnership, but difficult to achieve in practice. The attached note examines the main issues that we may expect to arise with the existing proposals

Kangaroo – the proposed BBC Worldwide/ITV/Channel 4 video-on-demand (VOD) service – has been terminated by the Competition Commission (CC) due to fears that it could control the wholesale and retail supply of UK TV VOD

In our view the CC decision is a lucky escape for all three shareholders since it will save them from investing potentially tens of millions in an ill-advised venture which could have become a bottomless money pit when they can least afford it

Near term ITV and Channel 4 will refocus their internet strategies around their own portals and online syndication deals, but these are unlikely to deliver significant revenue; Marquee – the BBC’s proposition to open up iPlayer to other PSB broadcasters – could help, with the advantage of being very low cost

The final Ofcom statement on the future of PSB advocates fixing the commercial PSB crisis by designating Channel 4 as the core alternative provider of public service programming to the BBC, and freeing up ITV and Five commercially by means of considerably lightened PSB obligations

The fundamental issue of the Channel 4 (or any other) solution is funding the new commercial PSB model. Eyes are now being set on a Channel 4 partnership with BBC Worldwide, centred on its UK assets as the marriage made in heaven

Another major recommendation of the Ofcom PSB proposal is the abolition of the national Channel 3 breakfast time licence, currently held by GMTV, which is running a viable business with its own sales force. This recommendation appears at odds with Ofcom’s commitment to plurality in news provision and its statutory duties to encourage competition in the communications industries

Kangaroo, the BBC/ITV/Channel 4 VOD project, looks unlikely to see the light of day any time soon, based on the Competition Commission’s (CC) provisional findings announced on 3rd December

The consultation period for the second phase of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review closes on 4th December 2008. The central issue before Ofcom is that the current PSB model is broken, lacking the flexibility to “adapt to audiences’ evolving needs”. The primary concern lies with the commercial sector, which is under increasing strain to deliver its PSB commitments due to structural changes in the television medium that have been compounded by the present economic crisis. This presentation sets out our views about the role of structural changes in restraining TV net advertising revenues (NAR) growth in recent years along with our latest TV forecasts to 2013. Whilst some of the current downward pressures on TV NAR may be expected to ease, a new structural change that threatens the commercial PSB sector is the growing chasm between BBC investment in its PSB services and the advertising revenues of ITV, Channel 4 and Five

This report examines the role of local commercial media in supplying the information needs of the UK’s many communities, in the context of the BBC’s ‘Local Video’ plans to add video to its local online services. Unlike the BBC services, which are publicly funded, regional and local commercial media must cover their costs from revenue earned from circulation and advertising. On top of the structural shift to the internet of media consumption and advertising, their business models are severely stressed by the ongoing recession, which will only widen the gap between the BBC’s revenues and that of commercial media. The BBC Trust’s decision on the local video plans will be a game-changer for local commercial media in the UK

Following Channel 4’s decision not to proceed with its plans for digital radio, there is a glut of unused capacity on the existing national digital commercial radio multiplex (owned by Digital One) which threatens its commercial viability

Channel 4 has announced the immediate withdrawal of its majority stake in 4 Digital Group, a new venture that was awarded the licence by Ofcom in 2007 to build the UK’s second national commercial radio DAB multiplex, and Channel 4 will not be launching its promised portfolio of broadcast radio channels

The obvious culprit is the weak economy, with mobile telecoms seeming to be more vulnerable to consumer cutbacks than previously thought, a hypothesis supported by recent consumer research

With European economic growth forecast to decline further, revenue growth is likely to drop below zero by the beginning of 2009, and then progressively worsen through 2009 as regulatory effects worsen, creating a very tough environment for mobile operators to preserve margins

Project Kangaroo, the planned joint venture between BBC Worldwide, ITV and C4 to pool archival resources and supply video-on-demand (VOD) to UK retail and wholesale customers, was referred by the Office of Fair Trading to the Competition Commission on 30th June

Consumer take-up both of DAB receiver hardware and of listening to digital-only radio stations has been slow, in spite of considerable investment in content and in transmission infrastructure for the platform by the BBC and commercial radio since 1995