Enormous AI capacity unlocked by 2026, combined with investor pressure for returns, is stimulating a rapid escalation in AI products that could spawn an AI ‘super app’ ecosystem that supplants the world of search and links

There is no turning back: Google is transforming search and YouTube while OpenAI and Perplexity launch AI browsers to capture user attention. OpenAI’s ChatGPT agent moves it further from Microsoft, who is yet to finalise their long-term relationship

Meta may pivot to a closed AI model without an ‘anchor tenant’—feeding Mark Zuckerberg’s ambition to revolutionise advertising. Meta is positioning new AI supercharged hardware in the consumer space designed to eclipse the smartphone

Defined roles within the advertising ecosystem are a thing of the past: everyone is adapting by building out functionality to claim share as the constants underpinning advertising—attribution, discoverability, and regulation—change.

There is a new wave of M&A, partnerships and developments from agencies, adtech, and big tech in data and AI, as all sides position themselves to reshape the terms of online advertising at a time of maximum uncertainty.

Big tech platforms are leveraging their scale and AI investments in attempts to reset broad swathes of the market. Publishers are exposed; their way forward relies on asserting their value through direct audiences and collaboration on sector-wide innovations

On 3 June 2025, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2025 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Adobe, Barclays, Salesforce, Financial Times and SAS.

With over 700 attendees and more than 50 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation, and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session Two, covering: The Rt Hon Lisa Nandy MP; Meta’s AI strategy; Channel 4 on Gen Z and trust; news and media in the AI age; and diversity in the age of economic challenge. Videos of the presentations are available on the conference website.

2024 was a stabilising year after a troubling 2023— Channel 4's revenue was up 1% and it ended the year with a much smaller deficit, although aided by a drop in both overall and original content spend.

Facing slightly uncertain conditions, the broadcaster continues to be over-exposed to the advertising market —91% of revenues—meaning its thoughtful move into production and acquisition is necessary and should be supported.

Channel 4’s presence in streaming continues to grow but struggles to mask the continued drop of 16-34 viewing share. Online success owed much to the increasing influence of foreign library content—this commanded increased spend in 2024.

US tariffs and regulations are sparing no one in 2025—Microsoft, the ‘winner’ of the earnings quarter, is still making plans to protect its European business in a doomsday scenario.

Hyperscalers who have piled their eggs into cloud cannot afford a misstep—this is driving record capex to satisfy cloud demand. We expect to see lumpiness in Q2-Q3, feeding investors’ worries.

Revenue impacts have been felt first at US retail, softening ad demand, with the UK relatively protected for now. Despite relief at the 90-day ‘reset’ with China, economic and political uncertainty remains the story of the year.

The slowdown in telecoms traffic volume growth post-pandemic has persisted for far longer than a simple hangover effect would imply, and has spread from fixed broadband to mobile in many markets

The eventual emergence of the metaverse and/or AI-generated traffic may mitigate this trend, but it is hard to see growth ever returning to a sustained 30%+ per annum level, with around 10-15% likely to prove the new normal

While far from disastrous for telcos, it does have important implications, such as the need to structure pricing more carefully, focus on network quality over capacity, and be more wary of the threat (or opportunity) from MVNOs, FWA and satellite

VMO2 reported solid financials in Q1, with revenue and EBITDA growth both improving and both (just) ahead of full year guidance.

Subscriber momentum however was poor across fixed and mobile, despite customer service improving, with broadband in particular likely to get worse as network buildout slows.

Meeting full year guidance is still achievable, but will likely require a significant altnet slowdown sooner rather than later in the year.

Service revenue growth remained firmly negative at -1.0% in spite of inflation of +2.1%, as competition remains intense and pricing power weak.

Operators are guiding to a 2025 EBITDA performance that is broadly in-line with, or weaker than, their 2024 performance, with SFR choosing to abstain from guidance this year.

In-market consolidation cries are getting louder, with France, Italy and Germany the most obvious candidates.

The United States’ America First policy rebalances the terms of trade with allies and the UK aims to secure an exemption to restore the status quo ante on tariffs

The UK is offering a deal to the United States on digital services sold in the UK that seems easier than a deal on US food products that do not meet UK regulations

The UK will have to give on the Digital Services Tax (DST) of 2% on “digital services revenues” (applied to Amazon, Apple, eBay, Meta, and Google) and soften the regulations and enforcement of Acts of Parliament  

2024 was the first year in history in which the network operators lost contract subscribers. MVNOs added 1.7m.

In-contract price increases are dominating revenue trends, with a somewhat flatlining outlook on an underlying basis but boosted by accounting technicalities.

We expect the Vodafone3 merger to close on 1 of May which has implications for buyout timing and will prompt higher capex, some early network upsides, and big strategic decisions for both Vodafone3 and BT/EE.