We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.

SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.

On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030

VMO2 survived the hammer blow of lower inflation-linked mobile price increases in Q2 with substantially unchanged revenue and EBITDA growth, helped by improving broadband ARPU

However, both mobile contract and broadband subs suffered declines, likely driven by issues with serving existing customers as well as attracting new ones, and these trends have to improve for the company to return to top and bottom line growth

Guidance implies that EBITDA growth will worsen in H2, but this would be good news in our view if it is driven by expenditure to support improved subscriber growth across broadband and mobile 

BT’s revenue growth in Q1 was hit by lower price increases, but positive EBITDA growth was achieved thanks to strong cost control as inflationary pressures abate.

Subscriber figures were decidedly mixed, with mobile much improved, retail broadband much the same in a difficult market, and Openreach broadband much worse (but still manageable in context).

The bigger picture is that BT is successfully keeping all metrics roughly stable as it completes its fibre roll-out and waits for the inevitable cashflow turnaround as a result.

Off the back of the Euros, ITV’s advertising revenue grew in H1 (+10% to £889 million) but this was not enough to balance a drop in Studios revenue, which declined 13% (to £869 million), hit by phasing and a tough market

Nonetheless, profits were up on a very tough 2023, with group adjusted EBITA rising 40% to £213 million, as cost-cutting proved successful—total costs were down 7% YoY

ITVX is moving from its launch phase to one of consolidation, with a changing approach to content release and an increasingly nuanced relationship with its array of users

Netflix saw revenue grow 17% YoY (to $9.6 billion) in Q2 with margin continuing to stay healthy at 27%, approaching the levels of legacy media. It appears that the immediate revenue benefits of 'paid sharing' are now dissipating but any shift in perception around paying for the service will continue as a positive

In the UK, older viewers continue to drive viewing growth on the service—they will increasingly dictate whether something is a hit

Despite Netflix's perennial narrative of amplifying the effectiveness of foreign-language programming, English-language content continues to travel better than anything else

Netflix doesn’t think about its audience in terms of traditional demographics, instead it aligns them with ‘taste clusters’, which are formed by thousands of metadata tags on its programmes.

We have replicated Netflix’s approach to content analysis: layering its ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata with viewing data to identify what makes a Netflix hit.

Suspenseful, dark scripted dramas perform best globally, licensed high-volume sitcoms drive viewing in the UK, while unscripted TV has thus far underperformed.

Vodafone/H3G/VMO2 have announced a spectrum-trading and towers-sharing deal, allaying potential spectrum concerns around the proposed Vodafone/H3G merger, although BT may argue that it is short of some critical spectrum bands.

The towers sharing agreement incorporates H3G spectrum into the VMO2/Vodafone Beacon agreement and appears to expand the agreement onto some of H3G's current sites.

We estimate a c.70% increase in VMO2 capacity from this deal and 5% for the industry as a whole (in addition to the 25% from the Vodafone/Three merger). BT/EE made a strong argument for spectrum reallocation in its merger objection, and some validity to that argument may or may not remain post-trade

Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.

The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.

The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.

AI integration into production tools throughout media industries will deliver increased productivity for professional content creation. Generally available tools will also improve quality and production speed for individual user-creators.

Roadblocks include the uncertain copyright status of models and their outputs, attitudes of creative workers and consumers, and the AI tech underdelivering versus what was promised. The need to integrate new tools into existing processes is perhaps the biggest brake.

There are stark differences by sector: the opportunities are greatest in games, where costs have ballooned and software engineering is core. Marketing is furthest in exploiting AI, while audiovisual production is more cautious.

On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe.

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.