Poverty has a negative impact on health in many ways —such as through housing, work, food, tobacco use, healthcare and sanitary costs, relationships, and social life—while social inequality has been shown to have its own, independent impact.

One in five people in the UK live in poverty, including nearly one in three children; almost two million households experience destitution. The life expectancy gap at birth between the most and least deprived areas of England is 9.7 years for men and 7.9 for women; the gaps are larger still in Scotland.

Multibank, an anti-poverty, community-based charitable initiative—which gifts otherwise wasted essentials to those most in need—has the invaluable support of retail and media to realise its impact.

From the depths of 2023, advertising expenditure on legacy media rose moderately in 2024, on the back of an uptick in real private consumer expenditure thanks to lower inflation and reduced costs of credit—the outlook for legacy media is about the same for 2025.

Online stands apart from legacy media due to the growth of ecommerce—driven by both goods (over 26% of retail sales) and services such as travel, as well as intense competition among platforms (Amazon, Shein, Temu)—with double-digit growth in 2024 set to continue in 2025.

Television remains the most effective medium for brand advertisers—despite the decline in viewing—with broadcasters’ digital innovation and SVOD ad tiers providing greater targeting alongside the mass broadcast reach.

Service revenue growth dropped further to -1.7% this quarter as pricing remains under pressure and in-contract price increases no longer benefit

Competition is heating up in Germany and France, and Digi is taking an aggressive stance as it enters the Portuguese and Belgian markets

While there is increasing awareness that investment levels in Europe are compromised by the current market structure, support for in-market consolidation remains lukewarm at best at the EU level

Broadcasters have made considerable progress in becoming platform agnostic over the past three years, delivering innovative ad propositions offering greater targeting, flexibility and measurement. 

They would welcome the opportunity to work with advertisers to explain the complexity involved in delivering linear and digital campaigns. 

Broadcasters believe that although TV advertising is transitioning to digital, legacy share deals and reliance on pricing relative to ITV1’s station average price (SAP) continue to hold the market back. Potential amendments to CRR may allow for a smoother digital transition, benefitting the entire ecosystem.

The Creative Industries (CI) are part of the UK’s emerging Industrial Strategy to power up output growth instead of relying mainly on consumer spend. Film & TV production is a prime example of a longstanding and successful industrial strategy that could be widely emulated.

Media’s contribution to economic growth is mainly in the form of a broad regional spread of skilled jobs created by a mixed ecosystem of commercial and not-for-profit entities, such as the BBC PSB Group and Channel 4, alongside 25,000 charities devoted to culture and recreation.

Media adds more than economic value to the UK by uniquely creating (unmeasurable) societal values through cultural products and services, anchoring a common language and identity at home, and conveying a vibrant and inspiring Britain to the world.
 

The UK altnets collectively lost over £1bn in 2023, with most metrics unrealistically distant from what they need to be for a sustainable model, particularly the smaller retail-focused operators.

Consolidation is essential for survival, and CityFibre at least has a reasonable case for long term sustainability with a wholesale model and Sky as a customer, and looks the most viable altnet consolidator in our view, with VMO2/nexfibre able to pick up the pieces should the sector fail.

A lack of long-term viability and related financing difficulties will dramatically slow network roll-out, reducing the altnet pressure on the rest of the sector even if consolidation improves penetration levels.

2023 was a challenge for Channel 4: with the advertising market failing to recover after a difficult start, the unpredictability led to an unexpected YoY drop in content expenditure

In 2024, advertising revenue is expected to be flat, which provides a more stable planning base. Recent volatility has tested the broadcaster’s flexibility and proactiveness, above its competitors who are more insulated

To that end, Channel 4’s process of diversifying its business—the difficulties of 2023 show that it needs to be supported in these endeavours if the sector wants a consistent return of benefits

In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets. 

On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.

The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.

The spatial computing ecosystem is on the uptick with the wider availability of head mounted devices (HMD). Apple and Meta’s commitment to developing HMDs is existential to conquer the enormous technical hurdles these devices continue to face. 

Apple has chosen to maroon the Vision Pro with a lack of controllers and other design choices making it reliant on mostly passive entertainment. In total contrast, Meta’s deep engagement in gaming and 3D experiences showcases the potential for the HMD category.

Live sports is the outstanding use case for TV experiences on VR headsets, with exclusive NBA VR programming on Quest bringing new levels of immersion and presence, while gaming, and its developers, will still remain the dominant driver for VR and MR for the rest of the decade.

Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
 

Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
 

Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn