Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business had a slightly mixed year, with strong volumes and revenue mitigated by a sharp drop in margins and profit, with margin being sacrificed for market share

Given the very poor recession-hit market for handsets, Carphone Warehouse’s market share gains have been dramatic, so the sacrifice was at least not in vain

Although TalkTalk Group missed much of its guidance to March 2009, we now view new guidance as achievable, with the main risks related to the integration of Tiscali UK

Carphone Warehouse’s acquisition of Tiscali UK makes TalkTalk Group the second largest UK ISP and the largest in terms of residential broadband subscribers, just as market growth begins to stall

The company’s synergy target looks readily achievable, although integration challenges are significant and could make the acquired customer base difficult to stabilise

Nonetheless, TalkTalk Group now seems set to dominate the ‘value’ end of the UK residential telecoms market

In fixed line, net broadband additions for the quarter were strong at TalkTalk given a tough market, but remained firmly negative at AOL UK

We are sceptical of new guidance for fixed line for the year to March 2010, but still expect reasonable performance, given the slowdown in broadband market growth

The distribution business continued to defy the consumer downturn in volume terms, with 12% connections growth and a solid outlook for next year, although the pain is being felt at the margin level

This research on next generation access in Spain continues our series of reports on NGA in the Continent

In relation to incumbents in other European markets, Telefónica’s NGA has one of the more aggressive deployment agendas, aiming to cover 40% of homes with FTTB/VDSL by end-2009 (and some FTTH). Its NGA-based Trio Futura retail offers launched in January 2009 after final regulatory clearance. Conditions for Telefónica's NGA in Spain are propitious because retail broadband prices are relatively high and bandwidth commands a premium

 

 

 

Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business felt the recessionary chill for the first time in the December quarter, but its like-for-like organic growth of -1% was still far better than other consumer electronics retailers have fared

The market outlook is unfortunately still worsening. While we still expect Carphone Warehouse to outperform its competitors, its results are likely to get worse before they get better

In fixed line, net broadband additions were reasonable at TalkTalk but negative again at AOL. We are sceptical of the prospects for subscriber growth at AOL, and earlier guidance of 200-250k broadband net adds for the year to March now looks unlikely to be met