The spatial computing ecosystem is on the uptick with the wider availability of head mounted devices (HMD). Apple and Meta’s commitment to developing HMDs is existential to conquer the enormous technical hurdles these devices continue to face. 

Apple has chosen to maroon the Vision Pro with a lack of controllers and other design choices making it reliant on mostly passive entertainment. In total contrast, Meta’s deep engagement in gaming and 3D experiences showcases the potential for the HMD category.

Live sports is the outstanding use case for TV experiences on VR headsets, with exclusive NBA VR programming on Quest bringing new levels of immersion and presence, while gaming, and its developers, will still remain the dominant driver for VR and MR for the rest of the decade.

Women’s sport press news coverage during the 2024 Paris Olympics has softened after three years of record-breaking highs, though it remains up 3.8x on 2016 levels

Publications vary in their representation, with populars increasing article numbers faster, though qualities continue to devote more space to women. Success is a key generator of ‘newsworthy’ content

Coverage of women’s sport, despite falling article numbers, is larger and more prominent than before, and the threshold for inclusion continues to fall—signalling wider normalisation of women in sports pages
 

A subscription funding model would be antithetical to the BBC’s public service mission, necessarily ending universality of access and undermining its breadth of content. 

Options like separating out “public service” content from other programming would result in a decline in news consumption, while the subscription model would risk sustainability and encourage short-term thinking. 

Further, there are technical roadblocks to executing this model, meaning that it is not feasible until long after the end of the current Charter in 2027.

In the past, broadcast TV and YouTube content has been poles apart—both in substance and the need states they served. This is changing, with the overlap in offerings growing 

We estimate that c.61% of viewing of YouTube Trending content is of videos that could be considered TV-like. Similar programming makes up c.35% of broadcast TV viewing 

YouTube’s videos are also becoming longer, raising audience tolerance and expectations, and allowing the service to compete in a broader range of genres. However, this will be challenged by monetisation limitations

Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions 

Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating 

Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream

CityFibre has announced a deal to supply the second largest UK ISP Sky with wholesale broadband services, doubling its addressable target market at a stroke, in a blow to Openreach.

This may be just a foot in the door for CityFibre, but it is a critical one, and puts it firmly in the driving seat for altnet consolidation. There are also positives for VMO2 and other altnets hopeful of an eventual wholesale deal with Sky, and for retail ISPs now that the altnet sector is pitching towards wholesale away from retail.

While this is obviously bad news for Openreach, we see it more as an absence of a potential positive than something that might actually worsen current trends, and there are mitigating positives for the wider BT Group.

Market revenue growth was just positive at 0.2% in Q2, as lower price increases were mitigated by some temporary ARPU gains.

Growth is likely to drop negative in the rest of year however, with continued weak volume growth compounded by temporary ARPU gains unwinding.

Pricing structures differ quite widely as regards landline offers and out-of-contract pricing, and all could benefit from adopting best practice, a marginal gain worth pursuing in a tough market.
 

Streaming fell back into the red again, although with further price hikes on the way—along with "modest" Disney+ subscriber growth—next quarter should see the beginning of a profitable trajectory

In the UK, Disney+ continues to grow engagement—if not necessarily subscriptions—however, we still await a boost from local scripted originals

While the performance of Disney's core segments appears to be stabilising, 2024 remains a year of unfinished projects

We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.

SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.

On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030

Meta led the pack of tech results in Q2 with 22% growth and championing a suite of generative AI products; should these falter, Meta can recalibrate by devoting more of its AI infrastructure to core user and ad products. 

AI and the metaverse give Meta an uncertain shot at a new platform play, leveraging its enormous user base and bringing developers back into the fold. 

Reality Labs is still burning cash, but a collaboration with Ray-Ban offers a path to usable head-mounted displays, and could get Meta there faster than Apple’s cutting-edge approach.