Netflix audiences gravitate towards lean-back, family films and comedies, marking a notable contrast with the kinds of TV shows which get the most viewing.
Films and TV are watched differently on Netflix: films draw more repeat viewing, are more of a communal experience and are highly sought after on weekends.
This explains why Netflix—even without a consistent, broad theatrical strategy—invests heavily in film: it brings in a discrete audience and boosts engagement for most viewers.
A subscription funding model would be antithetical to the BBC’s public service mission, necessarily ending universality of access and undermining its breadth of content.
Options like separating out “public service” content from other programming would result in a decline in news consumption, while the subscription model would risk sustainability and encourage short-term thinking.
Further, there are technical roadblocks to executing this model, meaning that it is not feasible until long after the end of the current Charter in 2027.
In the past, broadcast TV and YouTube content has been poles apart—both in substance and the need states they served. This is changing, with the overlap in offerings growing
We estimate that c.61% of viewing of YouTube Trending content is of videos that could be considered TV-like. Similar programming makes up c.35% of broadcast TV viewing
YouTube’s videos are also becoming longer, raising audience tolerance and expectations, and allowing the service to compete in a broader range of genres. However, this will be challenged by monetisation limitations
Streaming fell back into the red again, although with further price hikes on the way—along with "modest" Disney+ subscriber growth—next quarter should see the beginning of a profitable trajectory
In the UK, Disney+ continues to grow engagement—if not necessarily subscriptions—however, we still await a boost from local scripted originals
While the performance of Disney's core segments appears to be stabilising, 2024 remains a year of unfinished projects
We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.
SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.
On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030
The UK’s choice of policy for rebalancing the relationships between news publishers and tech platforms is on the agenda of the CMA’s Digital Markets Unit for 2025. The UK is expected to steer clear of the pitfalls of Canada’s news bargaining regime, which led Meta to block news, crashing referrals.
In the UK, Google’s relationships with news publishers are much deeper than referrals, including advertising and market-specific voluntary arrangements that support a robust supply of journalism, and dovetail with the industry’s focus on technology (including AI) and distribution.
The rise of generative AI has also ignited the news industry’s focus on monetising the use of its content in LLMs. AI products could threaten the prominence, usage and positive public perceptions of journalism—this might require progress in journalism’s online infrastructure, supported by public policy.
Off the back of the Euros, ITV’s advertising revenue grew in H1 (+10% to £889 million) but this was not enough to balance a drop in Studios revenue, which declined 13% (to £869 million), hit by phasing and a tough market
Nonetheless, profits were up on a very tough 2023, with group adjusted EBITA rising 40% to £213 million, as cost-cutting proved successful—total costs were down 7% YoY
ITVX is moving from its launch phase to one of consolidation, with a changing approach to content release and an increasingly nuanced relationship with its array of users
After an arduous ten-month process, France’s Ligue 1 has reached a tentative deal to license its 2024-29 broadcasting rights at a price 14% down on the previous cycle.
Adding France (for €400 million p.a.), DAZN now has prominent positions in four out of the five big European markets. With a weekly top pick (for €100m p.a.), beIN consolidates its model.
Attention turns to distribution, and whether DAZN will patch up its partnership with Canal+.
Netflix saw revenue grow 17% YoY (to $9.6 billion) in Q2 with margin continuing to stay healthy at 27%, approaching the levels of legacy media. It appears that the immediate revenue benefits of 'paid sharing' are now dissipating but any shift in perception around paying for the service will continue as a positive
In the UK, older viewers continue to drive viewing growth on the service—they will increasingly dictate whether something is a hit
Despite Netflix's perennial narrative of amplifying the effectiveness of foreign-language programming, English-language content continues to travel better than anything else
Netflix doesn’t think about its audience in terms of traditional demographics, instead it aligns them with ‘taste clusters’, which are formed by thousands of metadata tags on its programmes.
We have replicated Netflix’s approach to content analysis: layering its ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata with viewing data to identify what makes a Netflix hit.
Suspenseful, dark scripted dramas perform best globally, licensed high-volume sitcoms drive viewing in the UK, while unscripted TV has thus far underperformed.