Market revenue dipped into marginal decline in Q3, as both ARPU and sub growth weakened, both partly driven by the continued altnet onslaught
Backbook pricing effects will be of marginal help in the short term, but new customer pricing competition is still fierce, and households are still cash-strapped
In the longer term, pressure from the altnets should wane substantially as their roll-outs slow and they consolidate towards a wholesale model (or fail)
The Creative Industries (CI) are part of the UK’s emerging Industrial Strategy to power up output growth instead of relying mainly on consumer spend. Film & TV production is a prime example of a longstanding and successful industrial strategy that could be widely emulated.
Media’s contribution to economic growth is mainly in the form of a broad regional spread of skilled jobs created by a mixed ecosystem of commercial and not-for-profit entities, such as the BBC PSB Group and Channel 4, alongside 25,000 charities devoted to culture and recreation.
Media adds more than economic value to the UK by uniquely creating (unmeasurable) societal values through cultural products and services, anchoring a common language and identity at home, and conveying a vibrant and inspiring Britain to the world.
BT Group was hit by an unexpected slowdown in Global/Portfolio non-UK corporate revenue in Q2, with this impacting quarterly and full year expected revenue by 2ppts.
EBITDA, cashflow and all other operational metrics were steady or improving, with Openreach particularly strong, and without the non-UK impact it would have been a solidly good if unspectacular quarter.
The fibre-driven cashflow turnaround plan is therefore still very much on track, with the expected altnet slowdown/consolidation an added potential bonus, and the Vodafone-H3G merger a manageable challenge.
The WSL's new rights deal with Sky and the BBC starting in 2025 is worth 82% more per season than the current deal, and offers the league unprecedented prominence with every game broadcast live.
As Sky Sports seeks to diversify its audiences, the WSL is a logical investment: its audiences are small, but younger and more female-skewing than other competitions.
Free-to-air exposure is essential for the reach of women's football; the BBC and ITV's new deals should fuel continued growth in grassroots participation.
The UK altnets collectively lost over £1bn in 2023, with most metrics unrealistically distant from what they need to be for a sustainable model, particularly the smaller retail-focused operators.
Consolidation is essential for survival, and CityFibre at least has a reasonable case for long term sustainability with a wholesale model and Sky as a customer, and looks the most viable altnet consolidator in our view, with VMO2/nexfibre able to pick up the pieces should the sector fail.
A lack of long-term viability and related financing difficulties will dramatically slow network roll-out, reducing the altnet pressure on the rest of the sector even if consolidation improves penetration levels.
UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.
Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.
Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.
In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets.
On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.
The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.
Women’s sport press news coverage during the 2024 Paris Olympics has softened after three years of record-breaking highs, though it remains up 3.8x on 2016 levels
Publications vary in their representation, with populars increasing article numbers faster, though qualities continue to devote more space to women. Success is a key generator of ‘newsworthy’ content
Coverage of women’s sport, despite falling article numbers, is larger and more prominent than before, and the threshold for inclusion continues to fall—signalling wider normalisation of women in sports pages
A subscription funding model would be antithetical to the BBC’s public service mission, necessarily ending universality of access and undermining its breadth of content.
Options like separating out “public service” content from other programming would result in a decline in news consumption, while the subscription model would risk sustainability and encourage short-term thinking.
Further, there are technical roadblocks to executing this model, meaning that it is not feasible until long after the end of the current Charter in 2027.
CityFibre has announced a deal to supply the second largest UK ISP Sky with wholesale broadband services, doubling its addressable target market at a stroke, in a blow to Openreach.
This may be just a foot in the door for CityFibre, but it is a critical one, and puts it firmly in the driving seat for altnet consolidation. There are also positives for VMO2 and other altnets hopeful of an eventual wholesale deal with Sky, and for retail ISPs now that the altnet sector is pitching towards wholesale away from retail.
While this is obviously bad news for Openreach, we see it more as an absence of a potential positive than something that might actually worsen current trends, and there are mitigating positives for the wider BT Group.