Service revenue growth was broadly flat this quarter as some unwinding of price increases was compensated by a pickup in roaming revenues.
Vodafone has made some progress on its turnaround plan: it has sold its ailing Spanish unit; is rumoured to be in talks about a deal in Italy; and its German business is (just) back to growth (for now).
We expect muted guidance for 2024 with lower prospective price increases for most, inflated cost bases, and continued consolidation uncertainty.
Service revenue growth dipped by 0.7ppts to 1.2% this quarter—a slightly disappointing performance given the price rises implemented in some markets.
The impact of price increases has been mixed, with little revenue benefit in France, somewhat better in Spain, and a shift to Iliad in Italy.
Q2 should be stronger, with the UK price rises kicking in, the promise of a turnaround from Vodafone Germany, but a waning of price rise benefits elsewhere.
Recorded music streaming revenues rose 11% in 2022 and we estimate Spotify’s contribution at 1/3—Spotify added 25 million Premium Subscribers in 2022, growing its recording and publishing payouts to the music industry to $8-9 billion.
Spotify’s Loud & Clear resource shows that the long tail of artists generating royalties between $1,000 and $10,000, of which many are self-distributing, rose 16% to 175,500—75% of all those generating over $1,000.
Spotify’s open platform for uploads grew the long tail to over 100 million tracks in 2022. Major labels are seeking to change the pro rata royalty payout model on Premium to address the siphoning of royalties by fake music, clips and bots—a looming threat to creators is AI-generated music.
Service revenue growth was flat at 1.9% this quarter—a reasonable performance considering waning boosts from roaming and UK price rises, and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
Looking ahead, operators in most markets are now implementing price rises, providing a welcome (albeit transitory) tailwind to revenue growth—although EBITDA momentum remains subdued.
We expect a consolidation deal to be announced between Vodafone UK and H3G in the coming weeks and a decision from the EC on the Orange/MásMóvil deal in August—crucial issues for the sector’s prospects.
Spotify’s strategy to invest massively in podcasts weighed on its costs and chewed up its operating profits, a bad combination that led CEO Daniel Ek to admit he 'got a little carried away'.
Spotify's podcast investment did not deliver the benefit of reduced music licensing costs on the premium tier.
Podcast investments in North America have not materially altered Spotify's slower post-pandemic subscriber growth in that geography, and do not travel outside their home country as readily as music.
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request
Cable &Wireless Worldwide’s performance for the six months to September was weak but made to look worse by one-offs
Underlying performance continues to be hit by strong competition and loss of voice revenue, but the impact of this has been made worse by underinvestment in data centres and neglect of the wholesale and SME businesses
The outlook for the year to March 2012 is poor, in line with the June warning. Beyond that, further investment in hosting and related capabilities will be necessary, and we continue to expect modest growth
Openreach has announced large cuts in the prices of some important components of physical infrastructure access (PIA). A further substantial reduction in duct prices is possible as a result of an adjustment by Ofcom to Openreach’s regulatory asset value (RAV)
The reductions are helpful to the economics of bids by altnets such as Fujitsu for government funds to deploy rural next generation access (NGA), and to Virgin Media, as it expands its existing cable network footprint
However, the economics of NGA continue to strike us as challenging and we expect the impact of PIA on BT to be modest due to the remaining potential wholesale revenue, and BT Retail’s ability to use third party PIA-based networks
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request
C&W Worldwide’s performance over the year to March was weak, with the most meaningful metrics showing positive but very low growth
The sharp decline in the mid-market business appears to be over, but price pressure and accelerating loss of ‘traditional’ voice revenue is preventing further progress
Guidance for the year to March 2012 is uninspiring. Beyond that, growing momentum in cloud services and the overseas businesses should generate more significant progress, but organic growth looks set to remain modest