The UK business (EAUS) is continuing to improve ahead of guidance as expected and its turnround can now be judged a success. Management has announced an aggressive plan to extract synergy from the recently acquired Thus
Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 23.7%, with Neuf’s rebrand imminent. Cable remains a minimal presence on broadband
H3G Group’s H1 2008 results showed static revenue and EBITDA slipping back into negative territory, neither of which bode well for the company’s target of being EBIT positive next year
In our view the potential for synergies from an acquisition of Thus by C&W, though more limited than might be supposed, would still have a significant impact on the combined entity at the EBITDA level
International performance continued to be weak apart from Macau, although well within EBITDA guidance. Turnaround in Jamaica remains a significant challenge
H3G Group’s growth continued to slow in H2 2007, and it is now growing at just 6%, versus 10% 6 months ago, with falling ARPU combining with static subscriber net additions
H3G’s X-Series is not quite as innovative as it was presented to be, given that T-Mobile’s Web ‘n’ Walk is very similar in concept (flat rate data tariffs, 3rd party Internet services) and has been available since June 2005
Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is set in the mid-range), of which about €250 million will be fresh money to finance the acquisition of AOL FR and other properties, and the rest mainly to founder Louis Dreyfus and exiting shareholder Suez. SFR (controlled 56/44 by Vivendi/Vodafone) will maintain its stake at 40.6%. The resulting float should be 20.3% of equity
H3G has extended its deadline for hitting EBITDA breakeven, with this now around 12 months later than its previous forecast, we believe due to management failing to understand the extent of its churn problem
The Zune Marketplace is no match for the iTunes Store, with a smaller repertory of music and no video to supply the Zune, since Microsoft has announced it will soon sell video for the top-end Xbox 360, around which its ‘home-entertainment’ strategy is based
We figure the costs of switching to the Zune are low, but Microsoft will be lucky to sell 1 million Zunes in the Christmas quarter – if it does, revenue will rise by less than 1%, so the Zune is of limited interest, whether successful or not
International subsidiaries continue to perform solidly