Mobile operators, services and handset makers are diverging – they all come to the MWC but have increasingly little to say to each other as their businesses move in very different directions

In the context of -5% European mobile revenue growth, the MNOs at the MWC were a sober bunch, focusing on industrial services, defensive moves around messaging, and a (not unreasonable) plea to regulators for some relief

As competition in Android intensifies between hundreds of black plastic rectangles, the picture for OEMs looks tough but Google’s failure to make Android work well for developers may also start to bite, leaving an opening for Nokia and Windows Phone

Three drivers are increasing UK internet consumption: a growing number of older PC internet users; digital natives, especially younger people with high incomes, spending more time online; and rising adoption of the mobile internet

Despite rapid mobile user growth, internet usage remains a PC-centric experience as time spent on mobile is constrained by screen size, ‘on the go’ use and data pricing. These factors are less likely to inhibit tablet use

Everyone uses the internet as a retail, communications and information service and traffic is growing as older users come online. But under-35s are increasingly using the internet as an entertainment destination as well, sharing video content on social networks and driving a huge increase in time spent on YouTube

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows.

The speakers were Sir Martin Sorrell (CEO, WPP), Glen Moreno (Chairman, Pearson), Martin Morgan (CEO, DMGT), David Levin (CEO, UBM), Dan Cobley (MD, Google UK & Ireland), Mike Pocock (CEO, Yell), Vittorio Colao (CEO, Vodafone), Charles Dunstone (Chairman, Carphone Warehouse, TalkTalk Group), Stephen Carter (President, Alcatel-Lucent EMEA), the Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP (Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport), Neil Berkett (CEO, Virgin Media), Liv Garfield (CEO, Openreach) and Ed Richards (CEO, Ofcom).

Around 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs

These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices

Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself

Google’s UK revenue grew 23% to £676 million in Q4 2011, taking 2011 revenue to £2,525 million, up 20% year-on-year, 2 ppts below our November estimate

Globally, gross revenue rose 25% year-on-year, with mobile and display performing strongly, but rising costs pulled net revenue growth down to 8%

Our growth forecasts for Google’s UK revenue remain unchanged; we expect UK internet ad spend to rise from £4.7 billion last year to £5.8 billion by 2013, representing 35% of total advertising, as print continues to fall

Facebook is winning the battle for eyeballs and advertising in the internet display arena, with revenues projected to reach $5.3 billion in 2012

By comparison, we expect Google to achieve revenue of $2.5 billion, after traffic acquisition costs, though it remains the king of internet advertising, due to its dominance of search

Increasing advertiser demand for scale and performance will make many publishers increasingly reliant on one or both of the internet giants for audience and revenue growth

AOL, Microsoft and Yahoo! are partnering to cross sell non-guaranteed display inventory in the US, highlighting their need for scale in the face of increasing competition from Google and Facebook

Aggregating unreserved ads via their respective networks may boost share of ad budgets, but the focus on less valuable inventory means any impact is likely to be small

Short of extending the partnership to include all inventory and greater investment in technology there seems little the three companies can do to stop further erosion of display share, though revenues should continue to rise

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

This presentation analyses the social games market in the UK. UK consumer spending on games software, like other recession-battered markets, has been flat for the last two years. At the same time, however, there has been rapid growth in PC-based social gaming, fuelled by the free to play nature of most games and viral marketing capabilities of social networks particularly Facebook. By 2015, we estimate that social gaming across PC, mobile and tablet devices could be worth up to £400 million, though much of this is likely to be driven by adding ‘social’ layers to existing games franchises.

Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010

Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond

Google’s Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google’s annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn