VMO2 reported solid financials in Q1, with revenue and EBITDA growth both improving and both (just) ahead of full year guidance.
Subscriber momentum however was poor across fixed and mobile, despite customer service improving, with broadband in particular likely to get worse as network buildout slows.
Meeting full year guidance is still achievable, but will likely require a significant altnet slowdown sooner rather than later in the year.
The erosion of the website’s centrality, and the rise of creators and influencers generates multiple challenges for media –people’s choices have grown enormously. This report highlights consumer behaviour: what people trust and value.
Through a series of case studies we demonstrate people’s needs are resilient: helpful and convenient services with personality that can be trusted, all enhanced by strong community.
Media brands continue to play a critical and trusted role for people to navigate marketplaces, interests and their work life. The role of product –and by extension, the leadership and structure of product development –has grown in importance.
UEFA and Relevent, a newly appointed media rights sales partner, are already surveying the rights market for the next cycle starting in 2027.
With minimal competitive tension in major European markets, incumbent broadcasters are unlikely to increase their bids.
Relevent will, however, try to leverage increased US appetite for soccer to lure a streamer into a global deal.
Looking to 2030, we forecast that broadcaster viewing will continue to decline, driven by a drop in live viewing. Non-live is increasing but will be unable to make up for the total broadcaster shortfall.
Change is demarcated by age: while under-35s will watch more YouTube on the TV, with SVOD steady, the inverse will occur for over-35s.
The heavy-watching over-65s remain mostly insulated from change for now, however, those aged 35-54 are currently undergoing the biggest behavioural shift: beyond 2030 they will eventually carry their modern habits into their time-rich retirements.
Most regulations within the TAR26 condoc were continuations of the previous pro-investment regulations, albeit with little progress made on copper withdrawal, no extra help for the struggling altnets and a number of unexpected twists at the margin.
Within the detail, the most significant hit is the return of cost-based price controls to some leased line charges, and across all of the proposed changes, Openreach has on balance fared worse than retail ISPs, albeit at a scale that is manageable within the BT Group.
Ofcom showed no inclination to offer any extra help to the struggling altnet industry, regarding its inefficiencies as being its own (and its investors’) problem, with consolidation the only sensible path forward for most.
This report is free to access
Trump II is already proving to be a more serious threat to an independent, robust news media than Trump I.
Trump’s direct power around news media is limited, but the threat comes from an unprecedented politicisation of federal regulators, enforcement and procurement—to favour friends and punish enemies.
Opposition to Trump II is weaker and more divided than the broad ‘resistance’ to Trump I. Big tech companies are going for a close embrace, hoping to steer policy to their advantage—while others bend the knee to avoid punishment.
Podcast reach and share continue to grow, albeit slowly, aided by need-state differentiation and increasingly online, on-demand media habits.
The ad market remains small with the long tail of podcasts difficult to monetise, but an industry move into video—on both YouTube and Spotify—offers substantial reach and monetisation opportunities.
Publishers and broadcasters see podcasts as an essential brand extension enabling greater reach, whilst successful podcast networks have tapped into more relaxed, commercial formats.
Geopolitical clashes between the US and Europe were a barely concealed undercurrent at this year’s MWC, with European tech regulation at odds with US moves, and telcos pitching for regulatory favours on firmer ground than they have had for years.
Perhaps the largest impact is on the satellite industry, with Eutelsat OneWeb having been given a new lease of life as the EU champion versus a now disfavoured SpaceX/Starlink.
AI was of course the talk of the town, but largely in ways that are tangential at best to traditional telcos, with the necessary building blocks for telcos to play a big role (i.e. network APIs) still needing much work.
The ‘big 4’ ISPs’ combined revenue remained in decline in Q4 2024 at -0.4%, partly due to a BT accounting quirk but mainly due to altnets gaining share
ARPU growth of 2% is roughly compensating for subscriber declines of 2%, but this ARPU growth is likely to weaken in 2025 as various boosts drop out
A recovery will come as the altnets slow in H2 2025 (if not before) due to their restrained expansion, which cannot come soon enough for the big ISPs
With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.
New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.
Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.