Alphabet’s growth slowed in Q1, but search remains the premier advertising product: protected against privacy changes, and poised to grow on a return to travel.
Investors focused on YouTube’s disappointing growth. Its exposure to brand advertising has slowed it relative to search, and it now has to compete with an increasingly formidable TikTok. User subscriptions could be a hidden strength.
The US remains the core of Alphabet’s business as uncertainty and energy price jumps hit Europe.
The UK government is on the cusp of introducing legislation that will force online platforms to monitor and mitigate the presence and spread of harmful and illegal content, in a regulatory first for big tech.
Affected companies should take note: they will need to prepare for a higher level of transparency and communication with regulators, and larger service providers will require expanded moderation, user verification and research capabilities.
Users should be protected as platforms balance complex competing duties. News publisher content has a carveout, but publishers may experience butterfly effects as the online environment is reshaped.
TikTok has reached a billion users worldwide just four years after its global launch, much quicker than social media rivals, though its ban in India is a drag on growth.
TikTok’s popularity with under-25s has contributed to a hollowing-out of Meta’s active userbase. During the pandemic, TikTok also expanded its reach among older demographics, cementing its position within the mainstream and posing a further threat to Meta.
TikTok could earn twice as much revenue as Snap in 2022, making it the first app to break out of the mid-league in years, with a huge runway for growth backed up by ByteDance’s remarkable success in China.
Sky’s performance across 2021 significantly improved, driven in Q4 by a nice c.5% growth rate in UK consumer revenues and the advertising rebound, but effects of the pandemic are still being felt with EBITDA down 30% on 2019.
The decline in Group revenue accelerated in Q4 due to the severe shock to the Italian operation from its loss of most premium football coverage, although we see upsides in a possible rights reshuffle.
In 2022, Sky can leverage growth vectors including bigger content bundles, Glass, advertising innovations and broadband. Consolidating SVOD and telecoms markets may be more favourable to price increases.
Alphabet's stunning growth reflects a shift online that has outlasted pandemic restrictions. Google search is at the heart of online commercial activity
YouTube's slower growth is not yet cause for concern: it is still the biggest website in the world, with growth potential through subscriptions and transactable ads, as well as more brand spend
Alphabet might struggle to balance privacy concerns in the context of the online advertising ecosystem. The future of personalisation in ads is uncertain as Alphabet cancels one of its cookie-replacement technologies
Ongoing supply difficulties for PlayStation and Xbox through 2022 and beyond will result in the install base for the generation being permanently impacted. It raises the question: if you can’t buy a console are they even relevant?
VR will stage a comeback this year, as Quest 2 has its highest sales ever, the category will find new appeal from game (and metaverse) developers. If a rumoured Apple VR/AR headset eventuates, expect white-hot interest
Netflix will make strides in its games service―but mostly behind the scenes to deliver a once in a decade transformation of the industry. Don’t rule out a critical and exclusive mobile hit
With elections in the UK in December, and in the US in 2020, online political advertising is receiving intense scrutiny. Google has announced limits on targeting, while Twitter has banned politicians from buying ads
Facebook is the big player in online political ads, and it continues to allow targeted political ads, and to carve them out as exempt from fact-checking
Facebook wants to keep Republicans on side and surf the revenue opportunity, but pressure will increase with US elections, and we expect Facebook to bring in restrictions
While Sky’s overall revenues continue to rise, Q3’s growth was hampered by a significant fall in advertising revenue and to a lesser extent a slowdown in content sales
Underlying EBITDA growth was in the mid-teens. Next quarter, Sky will continue to benefit from lower Premier League rights costs versus last season, and profit appears on track to meet full year guidance
Q3 saw a rare decline in Sky’s total number of customers due to the conclusion of Game of Thrones. Sky clearly understands the value of unique content—recently extending its HBO deal. In our view, this was essential, since without a distribution deal for Disney+ (launching in the UK in March) Sky would lose Disney’s alluring content
New SVOD entrants are prioritising reach over revenue in the US with extensive ‘free’ offers, including Apple TV+ (to hardware buyers), Disney+ (to Verizon customers), HBO Max (to HBO subscribers) and Comcast’s Peacock (to basic cable homes)
This is the latest development in an unfolding global story of partnerships, continuing on from multiple Netflix and Amazon distribution deals with platforms, bringing benefits to both parties
In Europe, Sky faces price pressure, but it has secured its HBO partnership and can now talk to Disney from a position of strength
Media coverage of women’s sport escalated this summer thanks to the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup, which ignited national interest. The Lionesses attracted an exceptional peak TV audience of 11.8 million for England’s semi-final match against the USA
Still, coverage of women's sport remains minimal outside of major events: only 4% of printed sports articles reference female athletes. Quality press are leading the way—the launch of Telegraph Women’s Sport being the prime example—but the popular press are yet to follow
Freely-accessible coverage will generate greater interest and audiences for women’s sport, but continuous investment from all media will be needed to fulfil its potential