Thanks to bargain prices, France’s Iliad managed to grab 5.2 million mobile subscribers in its first year and to increase its fixed broadband market share, while achieving close to cash flow breakeven at the Group level

In 2013 Free Mobile’s termination charges will fall back to parity with those of its competitors, dramatically shrinking its gross margin, and likely pushing mobile EBITDA firmly negative again

Raising prices would be the surest and quickest way back to breakeven for mobile EBITDA, otherwise the losses could continue for some years as gross margins improve but network costs rise as it builds out its network

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

German unbundlers are in decline, unable to match cable for price or bandwidth, or to invest in new fibre networks. Vodafone, the second largest unbundler, must choose between consolidating and divesting Merging with Kabel Deutschland would deliver fixed line synergies – with high execution risks. But, based on the French and Spanish experiences, we doubt that a quad play strategy (synonymous with a price war) would generate value Mobile operators’ fixed line ventures are also in decline elsewhere in Europe, but cable is not always to blame, with pure play fixed line altnets also tending to outperform them, suggesting that genuine cross-selling advantages are marginal at best

Last week Samsung updated its flagship Galaxy S smartphone with a solid incremental upgrade that will cement its dominance of the high-end of Android, helped by a $14.7bn marketing budget and wide distribution

Impact will be strongest on other Android OEMs: the preceding S3 was heavily outsold by the iPhone and the new model is unlikely to change this, with similar design and positioning

Samsung’s launch event found room for a tap-dancing child and a live orchestra, but Google and Android were invisible. Samsung is clearly trying to relegate Android to a commodity and make its own brand dominant

Major European mobile operators were downbeat, with mobile revenue growth in Europe still massively underperforming the US, and their (misplaced in our view) anger at the OTT players being channelled into promoting new mobile OSs to compete with both Apple and Android

Samsung is cementing its dominance, while the other branded players focus on flagship models to try to cut through the noise. Meanwhile the flood of Android from Chinese OEM/ODMs is growing, at increasingly good quality. All other mobile platforms appear increasingly marginal

Superficially the handset industry appears to be stabilising around Apple, Android, and Samsung, plus the Chinese long tail. However, Apple, Google/Moto and perhaps Amazon may well all have disruptive moves planned for this year

Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is set in the mid-range), of which about €250 million will be fresh money to finance the acquisition of AOL FR and other properties, and the rest mainly to founder Louis Dreyfus and exiting shareholder Suez. SFR (controlled 56/44 by Vivendi/Vodafone) will maintain its stake at 40.6%. The resulting float should be 20.3% of equity

Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning in this market, and the development of the media side of the triple play to grow ARPU and differentiate the brand

Sharp rise in EBITDA margin to 31% in 2005 as Free increases the share of unbundled (on-net) subscribers from 53% to 70% and retains tight control of marketing spend in the 'landgrab' for customers in France

The new management is teeing up the core UK business for a successful turnaround