News has entered a new phase, defined by the disruptive forces of mobile, social media and video, effecting rapid changes in consumption and the underlying economics for news businesses: the level of change and innovation is rewiring the structure and financial models for news more quickly than many news providers are able to respond. While charging for news looks to be a successful route for some brands, we note that the scale of charging for the industry is substantially smaller than in print. Apart from this, three models are gathering traction: selling audience engagement; selling news services; and selling news to businesses. Each of these options involves very different strategies and opposing objectives which can only be pursued at the same time by those with the deepest pockets. Everyone else has to choose.
The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas revealed the ‘next big thing’ for consumers to be products embodying the Internet of Things (IoT), controlled from the smartphone or the vehicle Wearables like fitness bracelets are already selling well in the UK, amongst the largest per capita markets for consumer electronics, and next up is the launch of Apple’s smartwatch Building out the smart home is the focus of the current wave of devices imbedded with sensors on show at CES 2015, with apps developed on platforms supplied by Samsung, Google and Apple
The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus drove Apple’s most extraordinary quarter ever, with the company’s position in the smartphone market improving on all fronts: explosive growth in China, rising market share in the US and a rising average sales price.
By contrast, iPad sales continued to decline in spite of the iPad Air 2’s release, suffering from cannibalisation by the phablet-sized 6 Plus and saturation in developed markets. Apple has a strategy to revive sales, which may bear fruit later in the year.
A slate of new products is coming this year, led in the spring by Apple Watch. The question is, will Watch be a significant new source of profit or just a way to protect the iPhone’s dominant position in the smartphone market.
Apple has now sold 40m iPads – we estimate 4 to 5m in the UK – and goes into the Christmas season with no credible competitors beyond Amazon’s Kindle Fire, which is so far only available in the USA
Android phones are selling in huge numbers at half the price or less of the iPhone, but would-be iPad competitors are the same price or higher. With the continued absence of a meaningful content ecosystem for Android tablets it is hard to see consumers buying them in substantial numbers
Competing Android tablets have sold around a tenth as many units as the iPad, but others have sold far less: RIM’s PlayBook has been a major disappointment, forcing RIM to write off $485m of inventory
Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010
Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond
Google’s Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google’s annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn
National newspaper circulation continued its inexorable decline in September, with daily circulation down 7% year-on-year, although we estimate retail sales value decline was marginal
Sunday popular and mid-market newspaper circulation fell 4% month-on-month, as News of the World buyers continue to drop out of the market; we estimate around a third of ex-readers have not migrated to another title
Publishers are responding to circulation decline in a variety of ways, from churning out bulks to maintain scale, to increasing cover prices, axing international editions and developing their subscriber base
The Guardian has finally launched its iPad app: of the UK’s paid daily newspapers all but the Mirror and Independent now have iPad apps. All of these require payment and all but the FT use Apple’s iTunes billing
Apple has moved to smooth out the buying and reading process with the new Newsstand feature for iPad and iPhone, which adds better discoverability and automatic downloads to the existing subscription offer. This also makes it harder for readers to move to other platforms
There are now 3-4m iPads in the UK: this is more than the 2m people who buy a broadsheet everyday, but it is not clear how many can be converted. Moreover, iPad editions bring in annual revenue per reader of £100-125 where a print reader averages £435: a scale problem remains
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) judgment in the Portsmouth pub landlady case looks to have opened the door to legitimising the private or domestic use of decoders to watch premium sports and other pay-TV content outside the territories for which they were licensed
The outcome could prove to be a significant commercial opportunity for Sky to expand its overseas distribution among residential customers, but an extra test for the Football Association Premier League (PL) as it designs the next round of contracts with a view to at least maintaining current revenues
The ECJ judgment is more ambiguous over the question of public screenings for commercial purposes against the wishes of the right holders and the conclusion appears some way off
In the context of his Inquiry, Lord Leveson invited Claire Enders, as “one of the UK’s foremost media business analysts”, to kick off the seminar series on the 6 October with a synoptic presentation on “Competitive pressures on the press”. The Inquiry is interested in understanding the market economics of the mainstream media, including the impact of technology
This presentation brings together our existing work on the newspaper and consumer magazines industry, with an emphasis on the former, highlighting the challenges to the print media of the internet
A video transcript of Claire’s presentation and the debate on the session’s subject of “Competitive pressures on the press and the pressures on journalism”, may be accessed on the site of the Leveson inquiry, at www.levesoninquiry.org.uk
Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon’s dominance of ebooks
Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table
Media companies should not expect Amazon to be a more congenial partner than Apple. Amazon’s long-term stake in the health of the books or magazine industries is limited: the Kindle is a new way to reach readers and viewers, but not a saviour