On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, Salesforce and Adobe. 

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry. 

This is the edited transcript of Session Three, covering: consolidation in the telecoms sector; fixed-mobile convergence; and the future of the fibre industry. Videos of the presentations are available on the conference website.

On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe.

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.

Streaming profitability beckons, but owes much to the profitable services folded into companies’ DTC segments alongside the headline streamers.

There is a broader move towards bundling and price rises. The former bolsters subscriber additions and lifetime value but is ARPU-dilutive, while price rises will bump up both ARPU and churn.

2024 marks the first year with multiple players at scale in the ad space, as Prime Video entered the market. Other streamers with high CPMs and lower scale may be forced to re-examine their offerings.

The metaverse is a radical expansion of online experiences— sparking a host of new safety challenges on harmful content, economic activity, and privacy.

Building safety into the metaverse will take a village: platforms and communities will set policies and moderation. Regulators could struggle to future-proof their tools, especially with decentralised platforms.

AI age verification and moderation is in a race against AI hazards: disinformation, deepfakes and dynamic user content all intensify harms in immersive settings.

A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.

However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.

Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.

Service revenue growth almost doubled this quarter to 2.4% aided by price rises in the UK, Spain, and France, but remains well below inflation-levels.

The revenue boost from in-contract price rises will ultimately disappear as customers recontract, dampening the EBITDA outlook as costs continue to rise.

Operators are looking to other strategies to strengthen their positions, including edging up new-customer pricing, M&A, and attracting wholesale MVNO business.

In a reform of the competition regime for digital markets, by 2025 the UK will have conduct regimes for platforms including Google, Meta and Apple, overseen by the Digital Markets Unit.

Nested within could be a ‘fair bargaining’ regime for platforms and news groups, following Australia and Canada, whose lessons could be valuable to preserve platforms’ incentives to serve news. In Canada, platforms are refusing to pay to serve news links to their users, and plan to exit this form of content.

Financial transfers to UK news groups by platforms is among the new UK regime’s aims, but is unlikely to make up for the declining revenue trend of local news provision whose sustainability is most at risk.

Vodafone's headline revenue growth of +3.7% is actually a small decline once Rest of World exchange depreciation is accounted for. Europe, however, delivered an improving revenue trend to +0.4%, as signalled at Vodafone's FY results announcement.

The mix and operating trends are less positive, with growth driven by low-margin B2B, and subscriber losses accelerating in German fixed. Investors will be weighing up whether these results are green shoots of a recovery or another false dawn.

Although the company may reach its guided EBITDA on assumed exchange rates, it looks set to fall short in euro terms, which has implications for FCF and dividend cover.

The Nordic pay-TV group is under severe financial stress after its stock crashed, dropping its market cap to just over 9% of its 2021 peak value, on top of increasing and unsustainable losses and debt.

Viaplay announced a full U-turn on its previous approach driven by international sports rights and Nordic noir series.

Following the results, Vivendi’s Canal+ bought a 12% stake, eyeing Viaplay's still healthy Nordic business and consolidation in Poland.

A new era is starting for the big consumer tech companies, as they venture outside of their traditional comfort zones to bet on future growth—most obviously in AI, and then cloud, gaming, headsets and video.

Competition in the tech space is intensifying as incumbents go head-to-head in new revenue growth areas also populated by insurgent startups—their M&A watched closely by competition regulators.

Fat profit margins have ensured vast financial resources are available to pour into competition, but hitting the right targets for consumer engagement is key to success.