After the most challenging period in its history since 2012, Facebook has been able to stabilise its fundamental metrics and announce a major product overhaul

Despite talk of a business model pivot, Facebook’s focus remains on advertising, whose growth will remain concentrated in developed markets

News publishers wishing to stay relevant on the upgraded product set need to target exclusive layers of social interaction, with groups particularly important

Apple is strengthening its household model by doubling down on family-friendly content subscriptions and payments

The model is reliant on hard bargains with mainly US partners, which risks sacrificing potential scale for a short-term boost in margin dollars

The new services offer glimpses of novel concepts, but stop short of taking risks to truly differentiate—a problem in TV, where Apple’s distribution advantage is slimmer than Oprah would have it

With the UK perhaps Netflix’s most valuable market outside the US—home to a stellar production sector—the streaming service is escalating its foray into local production, opening a content hub in London and moving from co-productions to direct commissions

As UK content completely dominates UK video viewing outside of the SVODs, to expand subscription reach Netflix is endeavouring to become an alternative to the PSBs’ entertainment output; this local spend is efficient given the universality and worldwide appetite for British content

With a growing proportion of local content expenditure now coming from Netflix and other SVODs, there are ramifications for both broadcasters and producers—loss of viewing, potential market pressure, increased competition for premium content and hesitancy around their own SVOD plans—along with implications for the cultural landscape

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Amazon’s recent deals with Apple in TV, music and device sales mark a turning point after a decade of frosty relations

The context for this involves shifting priorities at both firms, growing pressure on Apple’s iPhone business, and rivals in common — first and foremost Google, but also the likes of Netflix and Spotify

The uneasy alliance helps both companies consolidate their strengths in the platform competition over media and the connected home — but trouble already brews

Google has launched a dedicated ebooks store in the US, with support from 4,000 publishers, providing an ecommerce platform for independent book retailers

Google’s aim is not revenue from ebooks, though the market is attractive: we estimate ebooks will be 5% of the US books market in 2010 ($1bn) and could grow to perhaps half of all book sales within the next five years

Like Amazon and Apple, Google is using ebooks to support its broader strategy, driving search traffic and building an ecommerce platform. Revenue from ebooks is less important than supporting these objectives

European mobile revenue growth improved by 0.8ppts in Q3 to reach -0.3%, but all of this improvement and more was due to easing regulatory pressures, with underlying growth actually declining marginally

GDP growth continues to improve year-on-year, but in the current low confidence environment underlying mobile revenue growth is not (yet) responding. Smartphone sales are surging, but their net impact on revenue is hard to discern

Looking forward, the regulatory impact is likely to turn negative again for the next few quarters, so some underlying growth catch-up is required for revenue growth to stay at around zero

Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 7 operating system is launching with a big bang: ten handsets, eighteen operators, and a massive marketing campaign

The OS itself is positioned firmly in between iPhone and Android in terms of ease-of-use and customisability; it is as fast as the best-in-class but no faster; and its interface is bold but will not be to everybody’s taste

A lack of apps, limited distribution, and expensive handsets will likely limit sales in the short term. Longer term, being late in the game with no truly compelling unique feature will make building a major position very challenging, but not impossible

 

US recorded music sales continued to slide in H1 2010 (-9% year-on-year for physical and digital formats (excluding ringtones), on a track equivalent basis). The UK recorded music market has been stronger than the US in recent years, and H1 2010 was no exception (down -1.5%)

Music major revenue declines on recorded music are being partly offset by growing licensing fees paid by music streaming services, as well as artist and merchandising services under 360 degree contracts

High margin music publishing revenues remain the pillar of music major profitability. These declined in H1 2010 due to the delayed impact on current quarterly results of the advertising recession in 2008/09, and we expect the advertising bounceback to be reflected in future results

 

Apple has upgraded its iPod family and also iTunes, which now includes new social networking features, and revamped Apple TV, now reinvented as a streaming-only device at a fraction of its former price

We expect iPod sales volumes to continue to slide despite the update, but estimate that improved ARPU will add $600 million to Apple’s topline in FY2011. However, iPhones and Macs are the company’s key revenue drivers

The revisions to Apple TV should drive up sales, but the content offering remains weak (especially outside the US) and it is joining an already crowded playing field – its main benefit is likely to be supporting the Apple ecosystem

 

The ebook market has broken out of its niche. Just 3% of the US consumer books market in 2009, ebooks are on track to hit 10% this year, with the UK following close behind. With global consumer books a $120 billion industry, disruption will have dramatic consequences

Amazon has sold perhaps 3-5m Kindles in 33 months – Apple sold 3m iPads in the first three months and 3m of the iPhone 4 in the first three weeks. Amazon might look as though it is on the back foot, but as this week’s £109 Kindle shows, the game isn’t over yet

We expect the ebook market to splinter, with tablets, ereaders and smartphones all playing important parts for different genres and demographics. This makes control of the Kindle platform a key advantage for Amazon