The USA is reshaping the global economic order in defiance of trade treaties; however, the rest of the world is observing trade treaties and absorbing the shock of the tariff wall erected around the US market.

The UK is relatively spared among the 90 origins hit by the USA's tariffs on imports of goods, which do not apply to services' exports to the US, twice the value of goods, including media (e.g. TV programmes) and advertising services.

The timing of the deteriorating global outlook is poor due to the headwinds facing the UK economy that are impairing the recovery of advertising in 2025.

AI agents capable of complex, self-directed tasks are becoming a reality, with capabilities set to improve dramatically through this year, and diffuse widely.

Consumer agent uptake will be hard to time, but fast when it occurs. Enterprise adoption will happen slower but with greater inevitability, as agents offer strong productivity gains across many business functions.

TMT firms should be able to capitalise on much of these potential cost savings, but are exposed to a number of specific risks around agents acting as new digital middlemen, disintermediating traditional web ecosystems within advertising and ecommerce.

US big tech companies are deploying hundreds of billions of dollars to remake the global economy in their image, as enviable growth contrasts with layoffs and low morale.

The cost of using AI models will fall in 2025 and make more AI applications possible. Regulation is caught between pressure from Trump and investigations that must go on, such as digital markets.

Microsoft and Google have tied their fortunes to AI. Amazon and Meta stand to realise business gains from AI, while Apple is the outlier: capex declined in 2024 as it focuses on iPhone and services.

Use of publisher content to train AI models is hotly contested. Unacknowledged scraping, licensing deals, and lawsuits all characterise the publisher-AI company relationship.

However, model training is not the whole story. More and more products rely on up-to-date access to content, and some are direct competitors to publisher offerings.

Publishers can’t depend on copyright to deliver them the value of their IP. They need to track which products are catching on with users for licensing deals to make sense for them, and to ensure their own products keep up with the competition.

President Trump will likely impose much higher tariffs on most imported goods, which could ignite retaliation by major trading partners and reverse decades of post-war globalisation.

America's biggest tech brands are vulnerable: we assess $570 billion of exposure to sales in China and the Chinese supply chain for six large companies generating over $2 trillion in revenue. 

Apple and Tesla are major investors in China to supply that market, and demand for their products could be blown off course by a wave of anti-US sentiment.   

The spatial computing ecosystem is on the uptick with the wider availability of head mounted devices (HMD). Apple and Meta’s commitment to developing HMDs is existential to conquer the enormous technical hurdles these devices continue to face. 

Apple has chosen to maroon the Vision Pro with a lack of controllers and other design choices making it reliant on mostly passive entertainment. In total contrast, Meta’s deep engagement in gaming and 3D experiences showcases the potential for the HMD category.

Live sports is the outstanding use case for TV experiences on VR headsets, with exclusive NBA VR programming on Quest bringing new levels of immersion and presence, while gaming, and its developers, will still remain the dominant driver for VR and MR for the rest of the decade.

The next generation of the largest and most powerful 'frontier' AI models will be a key test for the pace of AI progress, with OpenAI's upcoming GPT-5 the most highly anticipated.

For OpenAI, the stakes are high, facing a growing assortment of rivals and with huge spend on training and running models to recoup. Staying at the cutting edge is key to justifying itself to the big tech backers on which it depends.

If OpenAI can deliver technology that matches its ambitious vision for what AI can be, it will be transformative for its own prospects, but also the economy more broadly. Falling short could be fatal.

The EU is investigating Apple over its Digital Markets Act (DMA) compliance strategy, including its tight control over app distribution via the App Store. More open choices for apps would be a boon to media providers and consumers.

Apple is defending its ability to profit from its iPhone ecosystem, a vital principle for future growth. AI is also being dragged into the battle, as Europe misses out on Apple Intelligence, at least for now.

The EU legislated early and perhaps clumsily, but the rest of the world is matching the substance. The UK has just passed its new digital markets regulation, and mobile ecosystems will be a key early target for regulator scrutiny.

AI integration into production tools throughout media industries will deliver increased productivity for professional content creation. Generally available tools will also improve quality and production speed for individual user-creators.

Roadblocks include the uncertain copyright status of models and their outputs, attitudes of creative workers and consumers, and the AI tech underdelivering versus what was promised. The need to integrate new tools into existing processes is perhaps the biggest brake.

There are stark differences by sector: the opportunities are greatest in games, where costs have ballooned and software engineering is core. Marketing is furthest in exploiting AI, while audiovisual production is more cautious.