France Télécom’s Orange TV premium strategy presents an interesting example of diversification into low cost ‘light’ pay-TV offers by an incumbent telecoms operator. Orange Sport and Orange Cinéma Séries are offered exclusively to Orange's 2.55 million TV subscribers, and five quarters after launch, adoption is 20%. This report draws several lessons on this type of venture for other incumbent operators
Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth declined again in the September quarter to -4.6%, but on an underlying basis it improved, and volume growth also improved, suggesting that improving economic fundamentals are starting to feed through
Margins again fell, with the net benefit of the cost reduction program a long way from compensating for revenue declines, but overhead costs are at least dropping in absolute terms
We are optimistic that revenue growth can continue recovering in Europe, implying a still-depressed 2009/10 but a much better 2010/11, with positive revenue growth in 2010/11 a real possibility, and that the company could stabilise margins if it sticks to cost reduction plans, and resists the temptation to ‘reinvest’ in ‘strategic’ initiatives
Vodafone has launched a suite of internet services, platforms and handsets under the ‘Vodafone 360’ umbrella brand
Our views are mixed: we applaud the contacts back-up service that will be available across a wide range of handsets, provided it proves user friendly, but are puzzled by the point of a Vodafone-designed user interface built onto a fairly obscure smartphone operating system
Overall, if Vodafone 360 can stimulate data usage amongst low- to mid-end handset users, Vodafone would profit in both revenue and loyalty terms, but competing at the high end with the likes of Apple, RIM and Google strikes us as both needless and futile
T-Mobile and Orange’s plan to merge their UK businesses into a JV would create the UK’s largest mobile operator by some margin, and the enormous planned synergies of £545m per annum are actually quite unaggressive given the cost overlap
This achievement would be moderated by ‘integration leakage’, i.e. increased churn caused by customers leaving who were initially attracted by an aspect of one of the operators that disappears after integration, but the net result should still be positive for the JV
The remaining UK operators will benefit both from this churn and the reduction in competitive intensity associated with five players dropping to four. While all the operators may win, UK consumers might lose, with regulatory clearance thus still far from certain
Vodafone’s European revenue growth continued to slide, down to -4.4% in the June quarter from -3.3% last quarter, which itself was a sharp drop
A substantial element of this quarter’s decline was driven by an acceleration in termination rate cuts in Germany, but the general trend is weak volumes driven by a weak economy
With a substantial termination rate cut in the UK taken from 1st July, we expect growth to decline again in the September quarter, before stabilising/improving for the rest of the year
Vodafone (and others) are reported to be interested in acquiring T-Mobile in the UK, but any such merger would be likely to face significant barriers from regulatory authorities
This achievement would be moderated by ‘integration leakage’, i.e. increased churn caused by customers leaving who were initially attracted by an aspect of one of the operators that disappears after integration, but the net result should still be positive for the JV
The remaining UK operators will benefit both from this churn and the reduction in competitive intensity associated with five players dropping to four. While all the operators may win, UK consumers might lose, with regulatory clearance thus still far from certain
Vodafone’s European revenue growth dipped sharply in the March 2009 quarter to -3.3% from -1.4% in the previous quarter, due to a combination of recessionary impact and continuing underperformance of the market
EBITDA margins also declined by 2ppts, with falling handset subsidies more than compensated for by a sharp rise in general operating expenses, despite cost cutting efforts
Implied guidance for Vodafone Europe in 2009/10 of an organic 4-5% drop in revenue and 2ppt dip in EBITDA margin is bleak but realistic, with even these figures at risk if either the economy does not start to recover or the company cannot keep general operating expenses flat
Vivendi’s Canal+ Group overshot its 2008 EBITA target, despite sluggish subscription growth, delivering to shareholders some of the promised post-merger gains from “synergies” with TPS
For 2009, Vivendi has issued cautious revenue and EBITA guidance that, on current trends, will easily be met. However, management has now recognised that initial targets for 2010 will be “hard to reach” – as we have already warned
In the medium term, a further downside risk for Canal+ Group is the likely loss of exclusivity for the distribution of themed channels, which could be the outcome of the anti-trust investigation of CanalSat, with a ruling expected in 2009
Ofcom’s statement on Next Generation Access (NGA) gives BT the maximum possible incentive to invest by allowing a high degree of pricing freedom and some short cuts to reduce implementation costs
But Ofcom cannot guarantee that BT will make a return from NGA, only the existence of an opportunity to make one
Ofcom’s statement is certainly positive for BT, but we remain sceptical of the business case for BT NGA, particularly given the low price of all-copper based offers and Virgin Media’s roll-out of 50 Mbit/s broadband
Ofcom has come up with a new 900MHz spectrum refarming/redistribution proposal, in which only 5MHz of spectrum is taken from Vodafone and O2, as opposed to the 15MHz it previously proposed
We still think that disrupting the voice and text services of existing customers in order to extend the availability of little-used 3G data services makes little sense, and that rearranging a small amount of intensively used spectrum when a far larger amount of unused spectrum is about to become available makes even less sense
Should Vodafone and O2 continue to oppose having their spectrum taken away, as appears likely, the delays to new spectrum auctions are likely to continue