Use of publisher content to train AI models is hotly contested. Unacknowledged scraping, licensing deals, and lawsuits all characterise the publisher-AI company relationship.

However, model training is not the whole story. More and more products rely on up-to-date access to content, and some are direct competitors to publisher offerings.

Publishers can’t depend on copyright to deliver them the value of their IP. They need to track which products are catching on with users for licensing deals to make sense for them, and to ensure their own products keep up with the competition.

Starlink has unveiled its plans for its next-generation satellites, boasting dramatically more capacity than was anticipated, as it aims to bring gigabit speeds to its broadband users.

This rapid growth in capacity poses the risk of a more commercially aggressive Starlink. While this will amplify its impact on the broadband market, it remains a somewhat niche consumer proposition but with additional B2B appeal.

Amazon's Kuiper is gearing up to begin launching its own satellites. While its target of introducing service later this year is likely to slip, Kuiper will bring an important peer competitor to Starlink, and will be the first time that Amazon's retail and marketing heft enters the UK connectivity market.

Service revenue growth dropped further to -1.7% this quarter as pricing remains under pressure and in-contract price increases no longer benefit

Competition is heating up in Germany and France, and Digi is taking an aggressive stance as it enters the Portuguese and Belgian markets

While there is increasing awareness that investment levels in Europe are compromised by the current market structure, support for in-market consolidation remains lukewarm at best at the EU level

Apple is investing an additional $1.5 billion into its satellite partner Globalstar to build a new satellite network and expand its direct-to-device text and call capabilities, setting Apple up to take a sizeable piece of this emerging market

The FCC has approved Starlink's direct-to-device service, opening the path to an imminent commercial launch in the US and elsewhere, though it deferred on controversial power and interference questions

In the UK, while Ofcom will potentially approve services in the second half of 2025, we continue to expect no commercial services apart from Apple to be launched before 2026, with the UK market an imperfect fit for direct-to-device for now

The CMA has approved the merger of Vodafone and H3G, paving the way for the UK’s largest mobile network operator.

Remedies are in place to ensure pricing stability in the short term, with the increase in sector capacity keeping the pricing side of the equation in check over the longer term, together with network quality upsides for users.

This is the right outcome in our view, with the alternative of a slow, painful retreat by H3G much less desirable for the industry. BT/EE will face the greatest challenges in adapting to the new market structure, with upward pressure on capex spend for all network operators.

Market revenue dipped into marginal decline in Q3, as both ARPU and sub growth weakened, both partly driven by the continued altnet onslaught
 

Backbook pricing effects will be of marginal help in the short term, but new customer pricing competition is still fierce, and households are still cash-strapped
 

In the longer term, pressure from the altnets should wane substantially as their roll-outs slow and they consolidate towards a wholesale model (or fail)

Service revenue growth flat-lined at -1% this quarter. The operators’ year-to-date net adds remain in negative territory while the MVNOs have taken more than 1 million
 

The accounting treatment of the new, absolute, in-contract price increases will provide something of a boost to some operators this year, but worsen the trend next year, particularly for BT/EE
 

The likely Vodafone/Three merger will be the primary theme for the industry in 2025 and beyond, putting upward pressure on capex levels industry-wide 
 

Vodafone’s Q2 performance was in line with the company’s guidance on almost every metric and was always going to be a tough one given the hit from TV losses in Germany and the annualisation of price increases there

The share price reaction (-6%) is likely a reflection of fears around Vodafone’s ability to improve underlying operational performance in Germany. Whilst this remains a valid concern, there is nothing in these results to amplify our worries on the issue

Escalating competitive pressure in German mobile is, however, a threat to the company’s growth outlook, and Vodafone’s promise to be “disciplined” in its approach to it may turn out to be too conservative a strategy

The UK altnets collectively lost over £1bn in 2023, with most metrics unrealistically distant from what they need to be for a sustainable model, particularly the smaller retail-focused operators.

Consolidation is essential for survival, and CityFibre at least has a reasonable case for long term sustainability with a wholesale model and Sky as a customer, and looks the most viable altnet consolidator in our view, with VMO2/nexfibre able to pick up the pieces should the sector fail.

A lack of long-term viability and related financing difficulties will dramatically slow network roll-out, reducing the altnet pressure on the rest of the sector even if consolidation improves penetration levels.

UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.

Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.

Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.