European mobile service revenue growth recovered to nearly reach positive growth in Q3, improving a whole percentage point over the previous quarter to -0.2%

The main driver of the improvement was continued ‘more for more’ price increases combined with a lack of price wars at the lower end, although the current detente does not feel very stable. Furthermore, the pressure on growth from the general trend towards SIM-only and the consequent lower contract revenue looks unlikely to alter

Revenue growth of around zero as almost achieved this quarter is sufficient for the operators to grow the bottom line, but not to transform their network coverage in the style envisaged by 5G enthusiasts – more substantial growth is needed to cover the costs of such a step-change

European mobile service revenue growth worsened slightly in Q2, dropping to -1.2% after three consecutive quarters at -0.8%. Southern Europe significantly outperformed the North, reversing the regional trend of recent years

EU roaming rate cuts and the increase in SIM-only subscriptions were the two main negative, albeit temporary, factors with the former particularly impacting northern European operators with heavy roaming exposure and the latter more varied in its impact across the EU5

Mobile service revenue growth was thus quite robust given these factors, helped by price firming in a number of markets. Looking forward, while the negative factors are likely to continue in the short-term they will drop out in two years in the case of roaming cuts, and SIM-only, whose impact is mostly profit-neutral to operators, will also reach an equilibrium in due course, and the market's overall resilience is encouraging

Apple’s hardware progress at this year’s Special Event was more impressive than the software announcements at WWDC in June, though not at the level seen during the bumper launch of the iPhone 6

Improvements in camera technology and custom chips are preparing the iPhone for more drastic design changes and new location-based service categories in the future

Next year, faster development of both software and hardware is required to defend iPhone margins or user base growth, let alone both

Google Home will compete against Amazon’s Echo in the contest to supply voice-activated home hubs to US homes

Google claims Home is better at voice-based search due to its superior capabilities; pricing is unknown, but is likely to be at par with Echo ($179)

Prime, Fire devices and media services are competitive advantages for Amazon in the US that will make it hard for Google Home to succeed there

European mobile service revenue growth was flat at -0.8%, while underlying country movements were somewhat more dramatic. The key highlights were Italy returning to positive growth driven by pricing stability, and France showing worsening growth decline for the first time in over two years impacted by challenger telco pricing cuts

An assessment of these challenger telcos highlights a somewhat precarious position, as continued price aggression yields diminishing incremental gains, and they all remain some way from gaining the scale to achieve profitability

The only incentive for challengers to remain aggressive is as an encouragement for their competitors to buy them; increasing regulatory hurdles to consolidation would remove even this incentive, leaving price increases as their only rational route to profitability

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

Nokia has launched its comeback with two very solid Windows Phone devices at €420 and €270. Next year Nokia, like Apple, will have handsets with uniquely appealing industrial design. However, Nokia will not launch in the USA until 2012 and needs to add cheaper smartphones to the portfolio

Nokia and Microsoft face a hard struggle in establishing a third mobile app ecosystem. However, it is not impossible (Google has managed it in 18 months) and given more devices and the right execution they could manage it

2012 will be the critical year. We believe that the flaws in the Android proposition mean there remains a real window of opportunity. However, if Apple launches a cut-price iPhone then the market will be turned upside-down, again

In this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone.

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

The most dramatic observation from our survey is the surge in mobile data service usage: 48% of UK mobile users now use a data service at least once a month, up from just 30% last year. This increase is substantially all from the increased number of internet-centric smartphones (i.e. iPhone, BlackBerry and Android handsets) in the base

The internet-centric smartphones themselves had substantially no reduction in data usage penetration rates (all at 90%+) despite their volumes surging, with users from all age and socio-economic groups using them for data services. Data service usage penetration on a daily basis actually increased for Android and BlackBerry handsets

This supports our view that it is the nature of these handsets in terms of their ease-of-use for data services that is driving overall usage, and that overall data usage will continue to surge as they continue to diffuse through the subscriber base