UK football rights values have pulled further away from European peers in a stagnant market, as telcos have withdrawn and tech companies remain selective bidders.
Sky and Canal+ have tied down key contracts until towards the end of the decade, while DAZN now has domestic rights for four of the top five European football leagues.
Tech players want live sport, but have distinctive demands and without new monetisation models they will not challenge pay-TV incumbents.
UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.
Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.
Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.
Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions
Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating
Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream
We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.
SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.
On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030
The US National Basketball Association has awarded its global broadcasting rights to Disney, Comcast and Amazon for $76 billion over eleven years.
The NBA is helping pioneer a new era of rights deals, by agreeing global contracts and a strategic DTC partnership with Amazon.
Sport stands at the crossroad of Amazon’s video, advertising and retail strategies.
The UK’s choice of policy for rebalancing the relationships between news publishers and tech platforms is on the agenda of the CMA’s Digital Markets Unit for 2025. The UK is expected to steer clear of the pitfalls of Canada’s news bargaining regime, which led Meta to block news, crashing referrals.
In the UK, Google’s relationships with news publishers are much deeper than referrals, including advertising and market-specific voluntary arrangements that support a robust supply of journalism, and dovetail with the industry’s focus on technology (including AI) and distribution.
The rise of generative AI has also ignited the news industry’s focus on monetising the use of its content in LLMs. AI products could threaten the prominence, usage and positive public perceptions of journalism—this might require progress in journalism’s online infrastructure, supported by public policy.
After an arduous ten-month process, France’s Ligue 1 has reached a tentative deal to license its 2024-29 broadcasting rights at a price 14% down on the previous cycle.
Adding France (for €400 million p.a.), DAZN now has prominent positions in four out of the five big European markets. With a weekly top pick (for €100m p.a.), beIN consolidates its model.
Attention turns to distribution, and whether DAZN will patch up its partnership with Canal+.
On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe.
With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.
This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.
News UK and DMG Media’s joint venture to combine their printing operations has been given the green light by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), concluding the supply of services to third parties would not be adversely affected
The CMA concluded that the printing operations of the two publishers were not particularly close competitors for third-party customers. Geography and spare capacity—as we have long argued—were far more influential factors
The CMA’s green light is a timely reminder of the importance of industry collaboration for the profitability of the news industry’s print era, with useful indicators for the evolving online market
The US is intent on preventing the CCP’s goal of AI supremacy by 2030, banning exports of advanced AI chips to Chinese companies. So far, these bans have largely been shrugged off to create a new commercial dynamic in the region.
Huawei wields a de facto monopoly on the manufacture and sale of advanced chips in China. Huawei also sells cloud services globally and threatens Apple's $70 billion in Chinese revenues through its premium handsets.
China’s AI regulation is highly supportive of the training and deployment of Chinese-language LLMs developed by tech platforms, startups, and device makers, with meaningful revenue gains only appearing by H2 2024.