UK football rights values have pulled further away from European peers in a stagnant market, as telcos have withdrawn and tech companies remain selective bidders.
Sky and Canal+ have tied down key contracts until towards the end of the decade, while DAZN now has domestic rights for four of the top five European football leagues.
Tech players want live sport, but have distinctive demands and without new monetisation models they will not challenge pay-TV incumbents.
The UK altnets collectively lost over £1bn in 2023, with most metrics unrealistically distant from what they need to be for a sustainable model, particularly the smaller retail-focused operators.
Consolidation is essential for survival, and CityFibre at least has a reasonable case for long term sustainability with a wholesale model and Sky as a customer, and looks the most viable altnet consolidator in our view, with VMO2/nexfibre able to pick up the pieces should the sector fail.
A lack of long-term viability and related financing difficulties will dramatically slow network roll-out, reducing the altnet pressure on the rest of the sector even if consolidation improves penetration levels.
As Netflix transitions towards a reporting cadence that omits quarterly subscriber numbers, the focus is on revenue (+15% YoY, to $9.8 billion) and margin (+8ppts YoY, to 30%), which remain buoyant. The company has guided that 2025 revenues will be $43 to $44 billion (+$4 billion YoY), mostly due to subscriber growth
Netflix's advertising-supported tier is dragging its ARPU—however, given its important future growth role, we would expect it to start influencing the direction of the streamer's content slate
Despite its expansion into new genres, Netflix's UK viewing has further narrowed around drama and films: however, live sport, British formats and soaps could move the needle in the future
Broadcasters are accelerating their transformation into digital-first businesses. We estimate that 17% of broadcasters' viewing on the TV set will have been delivered by IP this year.
FTA platforms have a more complex migration pathway to IP than pay-TV. Given the existing strength of DTT, and its older demographic profile, DTT will account for more broadcaster viewing hours than satellite/cable combined by 2029.
By 2040, we estimate that half of all broadcaster viewing will be via IP, with broadcast delivery remaining strong due to the live schedule.
In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets.
On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.
The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.
Netflix audiences gravitate towards lean-back, family films and comedies, marking a notable contrast with the kinds of TV shows which get the most viewing.
Films and TV are watched differently on Netflix: films draw more repeat viewing, are more of a communal experience and are highly sought after on weekends.
This explains why Netflix—even without a consistent, broad theatrical strategy—invests heavily in film: it brings in a discrete audience and boosts engagement for most viewers.
The CMA's provisional findings on the Vodafone/Three merger reiterate its concerns around the impact on the retail and wholesale market but its previous issues regarding mobile towers sharing with BT/EE have been satisfied
Crucially, the CMA seems somewhat dismissive of structural remedies, although hasn't ruled them out entirely. Remedies sought in the form of network and pricing commitments seem somewhat unnecessary, but nonetheless workable
We now expect the Vodafone Three merger to gain approval in December, with remedy detail negotiated over the coming months—a very significant positive development for the sector
Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn
SpaceX and its Starlink satellite network have made headlines dangling a vision of free emergency service coverage direct to all mobile devices, undoubtedly connected to its ongoing battles for FCC approval.
Starlink is the clear leader in the D2D space and almost certainly will be the first to launch its service. AST Space Mobile, backed by various mobile operators (including Vodafone) is lagging significantly behind, having not yet launched any commercial satellites.
The UK is however a relatively unfavourable geography for D2D, due to its high latitude and relative density, and we don't expect any launch of commercial service in the UK by Starlink or AST Space Mobile before 2026.
Service revenue growth dropped off by 5ppts this quarter to -1% as lower in-contract price rises hit.
The outlook for 2025 is marginally brighter than it was last quarter as new price-increase regulations raise the average in-contract price increase for customers.
The CMA is set to deliver its preliminary findings on the Vodafone/Three merger in September. If it is not approved, we expect both parties to significantly change their strategies to be viable in the UK market.