BT’s Q4 was mixed in the detail, with consumer broadband volumes weakening but FTTP roll-out and adoption surging, with performance at the Group level solid enough.

The April price increase has reportedly landed well, strongly supporting BT’s guidance for revenue and EBITDA growth in 2022/23 with no other improvements required.

The macroeconomic environment continues to weaken, affecting BT and its premium brands in a number of ways, but it appears to have enough room in its guidance to weather this storm.

On 12 May 2022, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2022 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, Meta, and Deloitte Legal

With up to 500 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on regulation, infrastructure, and how new technologies will impact the future of the industry

These are edited transcripts of Sessions 1-3 covering: regulation and legislation, PSB renewal, and clarity in the age of non-linear transmission. Videos of the presentations are also available on the conference website

The UK's cultural industries remain the strongest in Europe and digital distribution is a strong vector for the globalisation of British culture

The international reach and reputation of UK news providers is unparalleled, with the BBC, the largest news provider globally, reaching half a billion users weekly

Independent commissioning drives a dynamic ecosystem of TV exports with global clout—worth an estimated £3.4 billion—that remains stable despite Brexit

Whilst we remain sceptical of the churn reduction benefits of fixed/mobile convergence, the pandemic and a more astute approach from the operators is enhancing the case for it in the UK.

Creating the impression of a giveaway whilst minimizing the effective discount is key, as is extracting any loyalty and cost benefits.

Even if well executed, any upsides are likely to be modest. Operators are right to keep discounts to a minimum and to avoid M&A premia predicated on fixed/mobile convergence synergies.

Amazon's first reported loss since 2015 is not surprising in a difficult inflationary environment, as ecommerce resets from the pandemic boost. Highly exposed to cost pressures through its logistics business, the situation is not as bad as it looks

The increases to Fulfilled by Amazon fees have been completely lost in the storm, while costs continue to increase on all sides. Amazon's announced increases are unlikely to keep up 

Launching Buy with Prime will allow Amazon to increasingly monetise FBA: a further step towards creating a monopoly in the fulfillment space while also boosting the desirability of Prime membership

Amazon has capitalised on the pandemic’s boost to ecommerce, reporting 67% global revenue growth from 2019 to 2021. While Shopify’s impressive trebling of B2B revenues was from a lower base, at 44% of Amazon’s Marketplace it is closing the (still huge) gap

Shopify appeals to brands around the world, leveraging the open internet to establish a direct-to-consumer (D2C) business, undermining Amazon’s position as the B2B ecommerce one-stop-shop in 17 markets

Shopify is not a direct platform competitor to Amazon, which boasts a captive audience of Prime members and fulfilment. Shopify’s expansion to fulfilment in North America is the first threat to Amazon’s grip

Market revenue growth accelerated to just under 2% in Q4, with broadband growth holding up despite the ending of most pandemic restrictions.

Backbook pricing pressure should continue to retreat in 2022, and ultrafast speed premia should also bolster ARPU as FTTP roll-outs accelerate.

The price increases due in April will further support growth, with BT in particular to benefit, and all will have to be wary of customer backlash.

TikTok has reached a billion users worldwide just four years after its global launch, much quicker than social media rivals, though its ban in India is a drag on growth.

TikTok’s popularity with under-25s has contributed to a hollowing-out of Meta’s active userbase. During the pandemic, TikTok also expanded its reach among older demographics, cementing its position within the mainstream and posing a further threat to Meta. 

TikTok could earn twice as much revenue as Snap in 2022, making it the first app to break out of the mid-league in years, with a huge runway for growth backed up by ByteDance’s remarkable success in China. 

BT had a solid Q3, with some mixed results but key metrics all improving, and a (perhaps unsurprisingly) slow post-lockdown recovery the only negative.

The price increase in April should drive dramatic (for BT) revenue and EBITDA acceleration at Consumer, Openreach and BT as a whole, and easily cover pressures within BT’s own cost base.

Longer-term growth is dependent on FTTP performance, which continues to look promising with improving metrics across the board in the quarter, and no news is good news in terms of ISPs signing with competitor networks.

The UK net neutrality rules are up for review; as usual, the operators are pressuring for relaxation, and there are strong arguments that the competitiveness of UK telecoms markets make such rules innovation-quashing with no consumer benefit.

The chances of mainstream video content providers producing a windfall for telcos are slim, but there are a host of more intensely commercial content providers which have far greater potential to pay extra money for higher quality content delivery.

Future services such as virtual and augmented reality will stretch even FTTP/5G networks; allowing the telcos to develop custom business models to facilitate their delivery may well speed up the development and implementation of the metaverse in the UK.