VMO2 ended 2023 with strong ARPU and EBITDA growth, meeting its (revised) guidance for the full year, but saw receding subscriber momentum across both fixed and mobile.

2024 will be much tougher across the industry and for VMO2 in particular, with its revenue expected to be flat at best, and waning boosts from price rises and synergies coupled with a series of technical factors shrinking EBITDA.

The company has promised new commercial initiatives in 2024, and thereafter we see strong potential in it maximizing the use of its network and retail arms via breaking the long-standing lock between them, although the formation of NetCo is neither a necessary nor sufficient step for this.

BT’s Q3 was robust in financial terms, delivering revenue growth of 3% and EBITDA growth of 1%, both in-line/ahead of analyst expectations.

Strong broadband ARPU and accelerating FTTP performance at Openreach were the highlights, a weakening BT Business and continued Openreach broadband losses were the main concerns.

This year’s guidance should be easily met, next year’s will be trickier given lower price rises due in April, but the long-term plan of a massive cashflow turnaround when the FTTP build ends is still well on-track.

Market revenue growth was robust in Q3 at 1.4%, but heavily supported by price rises whose effect will wane over the next year.

Broadband net adds remained negative, with pay TV and telephony more negative still, mainly thanks to strained consumer finances.

Declining volumes and waning price rise boosts are likely to lead the market into decline next year, with a recovering economy needed to reverse this.

Online retail is a prime arena for AI implementation, with a high degree of tech involvement and proximity to the point of sale

Generative AI’s near-term prospects are inflated by the hype cycle; instead, improvements to product discovery and logistics will be the next frontiers for growth and AI-driven efficiency

Retailers risk their reputations as they jostle for early mover advantage: larger players Amazon and Shopify through major investments, and SMEs with specialised data and licensing

News UK and the Mail propose to set up a joint venture, pooling most of the infrastructure and capacity of their printing operations

The proposed JV is subject to competition scrutiny, with two print sites—Thurrock and Dinnington (both DMG Media)—identified for potential closure                          

Opportunities for digital collaboration should be higher up publisher agendas more generally, as the opportunities and threats of the next digital phase evolve

Project Gigabit, the process of awarding subsidies to cover the hardest-to-reach 10-15% of the UK with gigabit broadband, is well underway, with altnets having been awarded all of the contracts won so far, although these are only 5-10% of the prospective total.

While wholesale provision is mandatory under the contracts, logic and experience suggests that this option may prove impractical, leaving the national ISPs (such as BT, Sky and TalkTalk) at risk of losing up to 15% of the market, and consumers being denied hard-won choice.

Openreach would be well advised to build its own network in these areas using the ducts and poles of the subsidy winners (also mandated), to protect the prospects of its ISP customers and maintain consumer choice.

The sale of each of the parent companies of The Telegraph and Spectator Groups is close to kick-off, with several buyers already expressing a firm interest. 

Newspaper mergers are likely to be subject to both a competition and public interest process, representing a hurdle for potential buyers.

Only a trade buyer would be tested for a potential substantial lessening of competition and for a potential reduction in media plurality, a higher bar than for non-trade buyers. 

Market revenue growth surged to 2% in Q2, but entirely-and-more driven by price rises, with underlying trends negative across volumes and ARPU.

Broadband volumes in particular turned sharply negative, largely due to a post-lockdown hangover combining with weak economic conditions.

The outlook is bleak: price rise benefits are set to wane and then reverse, and weak volumes will feed through, with economic recovery needed for a return to sustainable growth.

 

The sale of the Telegraph Media Group (TMG) gets a boost from its 2022 Trading Statement, including steadily rising profits, and visibility for 2023 subscriptions

TMG has built out its digital reader revenues, rapidly closing on one million subscriptions—setting the business on a more sustainable path

The sale of TMG and The Spectator will reach its highest valuation if appetite to own these assets sharpens and widens the range of buyers that will bid

The Nordic pay-TV group is under severe financial stress after its stock crashed, dropping its market cap to just over 9% of its 2021 peak value, on top of increasing and unsustainable losses and debt.

Viaplay announced a full U-turn on its previous approach driven by international sports rights and Nordic noir series.

Following the results, Vivendi’s Canal+ bought a 12% stake, eyeing Viaplay's still healthy Nordic business and consolidation in Poland.