All the recent attention to BSkyB has had to do with the proposed News Corporation takeover and its impact on the share price. For the BSkyB business itself, we think the troubles of News International have so far had very little effect, as there is nothing to link the pay-TV operator Sky directly with the News of the World, the epicentre of the current judicial and political storm. Nothing, that is, apart from the Murdoch factor, which certainly seemed to do no harm to sales of the final News of the World edition on Sunday 10 July which topped 4.5 million.

In our view a bigger concern for BSkyB is the impact of the current squeeze on consumer spending. This may best explain the press release of 8 July, which announced both the launch of Sky Go as an added TV Anywhere extra to Sky customers at no extra cost to their existing packages and the freezing of package prices until 31 August 2012.

Ofcom is entitled to consider whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own BSkyB’s channels, not the company itself

Precedent suggests that Ofcom will only be able to conclude that News Corp is unfit if the acquiring company’s directors are found guilty of a serious criminal offence. Suspicions, allegations and mistrust are absolutely not enough

We believe that Ofcom will only be able to assess whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own Sky channels after the transaction is concluded

We expect Jeremy Hunt to announce the fine details of the proposal to give editorial independence to Sky News within the next few days. After a perfunctory further consultation, the regulatory barriers to the purchase of BSkyB by News Corp will be cleared in July

News Corp will need to reach agreement with BSkyB over price and only then can proceed with its proposal for a ‘scheme of agreement’ to take over the company. We expect the purchase to be concluded by about the middle of October if BSkyB cooperates, but early in 2012 if News Corp is forced to use a takeover bid

News Corp can acquire BSkyB while any judicial review of Mr Hunt’s decision is taking place but it runs the very small risk of having to unwind the transaction

In the attached note we present our analysis of BSkyB revenue and cost trends over the five years 2006 - 2010 and our forecasts to 2015

More than a year has passed since News Corp proposed to buy the 61% of BSkyB that it did not already own. With clearance of the proposed transaction now imminent, this note examins the strategic value of the BSkyB acquisition to News Corp. In examining the business prospects of BSkyB it concludes the business is embarked on a high growth trajectory in revenues and operating profits over the next three to four years, putting BSkyB in a good position to face more challenging competitive conditions in the future

The most dramatic observation from our survey is the surge in mobile data service usage: 48% of UK mobile users now use a data service at least once a month, up from just 30% last year. This increase is substantially all from the increased number of internet-centric smartphones (i.e. iPhone, BlackBerry and Android handsets) in the base

The internet-centric smartphones themselves had substantially no reduction in data usage penetration rates (all at 90%+) despite their volumes surging, with users from all age and socio-economic groups using them for data services. Data service usage penetration on a daily basis actually increased for Android and BlackBerry handsets

This supports our view that it is the nature of these handsets in terms of their ease-of-use for data services that is driving overall usage, and that overall data usage will continue to surge as they continue to diffuse through the subscriber base

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete.

Market data and industry anecdote point to an explosion in ebook sales in the US and UK in 2011. Leading consumer publishers are seeing ebook sales at 10-15% of total sales in January and February, driven by Christmas device sales

So far ebooks had been strongest in niches: romance, business books and frequent travellers. They have now moved into the mass market: few genres will be untouched

This shift brings with it a very different market structure, with Waterstones likely to shrink dramatically, technology companies with little stake in the health of publishing taking major roles and publishers faced with disintermediation and forced to build direct consumer relationships for the first time in their history

The New York Times is shortly to switch its free desktop and app services into a part-free and part-paid metered system. We also expect the UK Times to switch from its subscription ‘Berlin wall’ to a similar system

In the UK, quality newspaper circulation is moving into freefall, as smartphone and tablet devices provide target consumers with 24/7 news coverage on the sofa and on the move

Paid apps are in the pipeline for the Guardian, Telegraph and Daily Mail, and for some Trinity Mirror local and regional sites, as publishers enter a new era of digital innovation

European mobile revenue growth improved very slightly in Q4 2010, up by 0.1ppt in reported and 0.2ppts in underlying terms, but remained negative

While the improvement is welcome, growth remains very subdued compared to pre-recession levels, especially in Italy and Spain, which continue to lag the growth of the UK, Germany and France

The outlook for mobile revenue growth is bleak, with severe MTR cuts in Germany and the UK likely to drive growth down again over the next six months

The concept of demerging Sky News is evidently a plausible one and we consider it very unlikely that critics of the deal will have much success undermining its appropriateness as a protection of plurality

However, it is harder to judge whether the proposed implementation secures the channel’s independence as fully and clearly as it might

We outline a series of issues that the information supplied for the public consultation does not appear to deal with. We note, in particular, that the proposed undertakings seem not to block Rupert Murdoch, or members of his family, from buying the 60.9% of the shares in Sky News not to be held by News Corp