Globally, subscriber growth remains the driver of topline streaming improvements—86% of Netflix’s 2024 global revenue growth came from subscriber additions, with 85% for WBD and 54% for Disney

However, in mature markets growth is underpinned by ARPU. Subs growth is becoming volatile with more customers churning in and out of services around key releases

Relevantly, the race to scale up SVOD ad-tiers will continue to have an ARPU-dilutive effect: CPMs are lower than expected and the growing price divide between premium and ad tiers will persuade more existing users to spin down 

Podcast reach and share continue to grow, albeit slowly, aided by need-state differentiation and increasingly online, on-demand media habits.

The ad market remains small with the long tail of podcasts difficult to monetise, but an industry move into video—on both YouTube and Spotify—offers substantial reach and monetisation opportunities.

Publishers and broadcasters see podcasts as an essential brand extension enabling greater reach, whilst successful podcast networks have tapped into more relaxed, commercial formats.

Geopolitical clashes between the US and Europe were a barely concealed undercurrent at this year’s MWC, with European tech regulation at odds with US moves, and telcos pitching for regulatory favours on firmer ground than they have had for years.

Perhaps the largest impact is on the satellite industry, with Eutelsat OneWeb having been given a new lease of life as the EU champion versus a now disfavoured SpaceX/Starlink.

AI was of course the talk of the town, but largely in ways that are tangential at best to traditional telcos, with the necessary building blocks for telcos to play a big role (i.e. network APIs) still needing much work.

The ‘big 4’ ISPs’ combined revenue remained in decline in Q4 2024 at -0.4%, partly due to a BT accounting quirk but mainly due to altnets gaining share

ARPU growth of 2% is roughly compensating for subscriber declines of 2%, but this ARPU growth is likely to weaken in 2025 as various boosts drop out

A recovery will come as the altnets slow in H2 2025 (if not before) due to their restrained expansion, which cannot come soon enough for the big ISPs

VMO2 had another mixed quarter to end a difficult 2024, with revenue growth improving but EBITDA growth falling, and other metrics mixed at best.

The company hopes to put this behind it with guidance for both revenue and EBITDA growth in 2025, a tough ask given current momentum.

Ultimately achieving or exceeding this may depend on altnet pressure receding, which we expect it to do, but perhaps more towards the end of the year than the beginning.

The requirement for accurate audience measurement led to the creation of separate industry JICs— developed by media owners, agencies, advertisers and trade bodies—used for planning and as credible trading currencies.

However, now as brand advertisers need to be able to optimise campaigns across all audiovisual—and ideally all display—they want full cross-media measurement, and are therefore investing in the Origin platform.

But not all ‘views’ are equal; context is important. While most advertisers understand this, there is a risk that some ascribe the same value to all AV. Broadcasters are understandably wary.

Telcos are increasingly developing APIs to share selected network data with third parties, with the goal of supporting useful end-user applications.

Capabilities are still nascent, but the potential is real. Telcos need to adopt a pragmatic approach that looks to match API capabilities to useful products, and build increasing scale over time.

Security is the largest near-term opportunity for API products, but AI is the key emerging area, with telcos potentially able to play an ambitious role in providing APIs to help manage the growth of autonomous AI agents.

Broadcaster reach and viewing fell in 2024, but the decline slowed as BVOD growth increasingly makes up for linear decline and the BBC’s viewing grew year-on-year. 

SVOD penetration and engagement returned to (slight) growth in 2024 and video-sharing platforms are increasing their share of TV set viewing.

Broadcasters still offer a wider array of programming than SVODs, but they are expanding their offering, as is YouTube.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

YouTube is now the UK's fifth most-used venue for finding news, and a key focus for UK broadcasters and publishers. They made up a quarter of UK trending news videos in 2023, competing with native YouTubers and US broadcasters

We find that YouTube’s algorithms tend to funnel users from news content towards non-news within a few videos. The reverse trend, of non-news to news content, is almost non-existent

We do not find evidence of widespread brand safety concerns impacting advertising on news videos, though publishers still note YouTube is better for exposure and consumption than it is for generating revenue. The ad load is largely in line with other genres