In the past, broadcast TV and YouTube content has been poles apart—both in substance and the need states they served. This is changing, with the overlap in offerings growing 

We estimate that c.61% of viewing of YouTube Trending content is of videos that could be considered TV-like. Similar programming makes up c.35% of broadcast TV viewing 

YouTube’s videos are also becoming longer, raising audience tolerance and expectations, and allowing the service to compete in a broader range of genres. However, this will be challenged by monetisation limitations

CityFibre has announced a deal to supply the second largest UK ISP Sky with wholesale broadband services, doubling its addressable target market at a stroke, in a blow to Openreach.

This may be just a foot in the door for CityFibre, but it is a critical one, and puts it firmly in the driving seat for altnet consolidation. There are also positives for VMO2 and other altnets hopeful of an eventual wholesale deal with Sky, and for retail ISPs now that the altnet sector is pitching towards wholesale away from retail.

While this is obviously bad news for Openreach, we see it more as an absence of a potential positive than something that might actually worsen current trends, and there are mitigating positives for the wider BT Group.

Market revenue growth was just positive at 0.2% in Q2, as lower price increases were mitigated by some temporary ARPU gains.

Growth is likely to drop negative in the rest of year however, with continued weak volume growth compounded by temporary ARPU gains unwinding.

Pricing structures differ quite widely as regards landline offers and out-of-contract pricing, and all could benefit from adopting best practice, a marginal gain worth pursuing in a tough market.
 

We forecast broadcaster viewing share to drop to 52% in 2030 (from 58% in 2023), with the firming of its on demand viewing unable to balance out the decline of live: this is a slight improvement on our past estimates, with decline slowing.

SVOD viewing will begin to plateau in 2025, as video sharing platforms (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch) take an increasing share of engagement.

On the TV set, YouTube will grow strongly: we predict a 90% increase from 2023 to 2030. This is from a low base with broadcasters retaining 70% of viewing on the main screen in 2030

On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Financial Times, Salesforce and Adobe. 

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives, policy leaders, and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry. 

This is the edited transcript of Session Three, covering: consolidation in the telecoms sector; fixed-mobile convergence; and the future of the fibre industry. Videos of the presentations are available on the conference website.

On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe.

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website.

Market revenue growth was maintained at 1.6% in Q4, helped by strong underlying ARPU, mitigated by weak volume growth.

Lower price rises will likely slow market revenue growth by c.1-2ppts next quarter, with BT being slowed the most at c.5ppts.

The market is being hit by lacklustre demand, growing altnets and persistent price competition, with these factors likely to persist in the short term.
 

BT’s underlying performance was solid in Q4 FY24, with one-offs turning firm underlying growth into flat/negative reported revenue and EBITDA.

FY25 will be hit by much lower inflation-linked price increases driving a 3ppt revenue drag, but BT may still be able to grow revenue and EBITDA, helped by the unwinding of Q4 one-offs and lower inflationary cost pressures.

Investors were cheered by BT’s confidence in its longer-term outlook, which we share, with FTTP build, take-up and monetisation all going strong, and barely any improvement in underlying performance required in its retail divisions for it to double its cash flow by 2030.

Reddit, a unique and valuable online space, has reported its first quarterly results as a public company, following a very successful IPO.

In the longer term, Reddit is doomed to scratch out an unprofitable existence as a wannabe scale ad platform, echoing peers in the public markets.

Advertising is probably the least-bad business strategy, as user payments, ecommerce and licensing revenues are even less proven. Dialling back growth ambitions to improve the bottom line is the most sustainable path.

With traffic from Facebook and X to news publishers’ destinations in decline, distribution is shifting to other platforms where they have more control, such as feeds served on WhatsApp and newsletters on LinkedIn

There is no one silver bullet platform to replace Facebook, on which certain publishers became overly reliant, or X. News publishers are trying out a myriad of platforms to see which work best for the specific audiences and use-cases they are cultivating

WhatsApp and LinkedIn are still platforms that are mediated for news publishers, so risks remain. These platforms have highly differentiated alignment with the needs of enterprises producing journalism