A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.
However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.
Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.
Sky has withstood the consumer crisis better than its telco peers, but owners Comcast are stepping up pressure nevertheless.
No buyer for its German unit has yet emerged. In Italy, the outcome of the ongoing Serie A rights auction will shape that company’s growth prospects.
Looking forward, Sky has built a solid content supply line and is likely to strengthen further from the deflation following the end of the SVOD bubble.
The Italian football league is auctioning its media rights for up to five seasons from 2024/25, with bids due by 14 June.
As in previous cycles, Sky and DAZN will probably bid below the minimum prices, which could trigger further auctions.
Plans for a league DTC service are unrealistic, and free-to-air broadcasts would be uneconomical.
Sky has extended its Italian Champions League coverage to 2027, most of it to become exclusive, but at a higher price.
Amazon keeps its Wednesday first-pick
Having secured the UEFA rights, Sky has derisked the upcoming Serie A auction for seasons from 2024/25.
The Italian deal highlights the rebalancing of media rights value from domestic leagues to European competitions.
Sky is coping reasonably well with the shock of retrenching consumer spending, with revenues almost flat in Q4 2022.
However, profits are under pressure, as the increases in Sky’s costs cannot be fully passed on to customers, and the product mix is rebalanced towards telecoms and variable costs.
Management continues to leverage Sky’s brand strength and its critical mass of consumers to enter new markets, this time with home insurance.
For the second consecutive year, the global recorded music industry body IFPI reported rising trade revenues, growing 5.9% to reach $15.6 billion in 2016
Our forecasts supplement IFPI’s trade revenue data with richer national-level consumer expenditure data from local bodies in core markets, and project CAGR of 2.3% to 2021, tapering off as streaming approaches maturity
This fairly modest topline growth for global recorded music streaming trade revenues is the product of our judgement that the marketplace remains awash with free music. Streaming trade revenue growth could be higher still if the industry finds a solution to piracy through technological or regulatory means, obviating the need for the ad-funded compromise
Across Europe, markets are becoming more competitive. Incumbent pay-TV paltforms (e.g. Sky or Canal+) face increasing threats from both internet-based services (e.g. Netflix and Amazon), and telecoms operators
Telecoms providers are proving the most potent challengers as they enter the premium football rights market to create attractive triple and quad play bundles – examples include BT, SFR and Telefónica. The latter is now the main pay-TV operator in Spain whereas France’s Canal+ has entered into a strategic alliance with Orange
Across the top five markets (UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy), Sky remains the leading operator with an estimated 21.5m video subscribers, twice as many as Netflix
The “fair return” to US music publishers and songwriters for rights used by interactive streaming services will be decided in 2017 by the Copyright Royalty Board (CRB)
Rights owners want to switch to a fixed per-stream or per-user rate on all tiers, arguing music has an inherent value. Apple is asking for a much lower per-stream rate
Amazon, Google, Spotify and Pandora warn of disruption to free and ad-supported tiers if the revenue-share tariff is not rolled over, and the CRB could side with them
Sky delivered 5% year-on-year revenue growth over the first nine months at constant exchange rates, although operating profits fell due to several factors, most notably the massive step-up in UK Premier League TV payments under the new contract
On closer inspection, relatively weak UK & Ireland Q3 revenue growth compared with previous quarters largely reflects one-off special factors
Otherwise, positive quarters for Sky Germany & Austria and Sky Italy and improving cost efficiencies suggest that the Sky Group remains broadly on track to deliver its Investor Day 2016 guidance objectives
21st Century Fox’s (21CF) second attempt to acquire Sky comes at a time when the TV world faces mounting online pressure, accompanied by erosion of territorial boundaries in an increasingly global marketplace
Despite some investor concerns about Sky’s ability to deliver its operating targets over the next five years, we consider the underlying business to be sound and starting to show benefits that derive from its international scale
21CF’s bid has a strong strategic logic in terms of growing international scale further and evolving a global platform that integrates shared content strengths in sports and entertainment with Sky’s top of class expertise in customer relationships