The requirement for accurate audience measurement led to the creation of separate industry JICs— developed by media owners, agencies, advertisers and trade bodies—used for planning and as credible trading currencies.

However, now as brand advertisers need to be able to optimise campaigns across all audiovisual—and ideally all display—they want full cross-media measurement, and are therefore investing in the Origin platform.

But not all ‘views’ are equal; context is important. While most advertisers understand this, there is a risk that some ascribe the same value to all AV. Broadcasters are understandably wary.

Telcos are increasingly developing APIs to share selected network data with third parties, with the goal of supporting useful end-user applications.

Capabilities are still nascent, but the potential is real. Telcos need to adopt a pragmatic approach that looks to match API capabilities to useful products, and build increasing scale over time.

Security is the largest near-term opportunity for API products, but AI is the key emerging area, with telcos potentially able to play an ambitious role in providing APIs to help manage the growth of autonomous AI agents.

Vodafone has signalled a tougher outlook in Germany primarily due to a worsening competitive backdrop for mobile.

Although Vodafone has reiterated its guidance for the full year, this now relies heavily on developing countries, with currency risk emerging for FY26.

Investors are likely to be sceptical of the company’s “ambition” to grow in Germany next year, with this seemingly predicated on an improving competitive environment. Nonetheless, the company can point to some early fruits of its turnaround endeavours there, and next year’s trends should be better than the current ones regardless.

The CMA has approved the merger of Vodafone and H3G, paving the way for the UK’s largest mobile network operator.

Remedies are in place to ensure pricing stability in the short term, with the increase in sector capacity keeping the pricing side of the equation in check over the longer term, together with network quality upsides for users.

This is the right outcome in our view, with the alternative of a slow, painful retreat by H3G much less desirable for the industry. BT/EE will face the greatest challenges in adapting to the new market structure, with upward pressure on capex spend for all network operators.

Service revenue growth flat-lined at -1% this quarter. The operators’ year-to-date net adds remain in negative territory while the MVNOs have taken more than 1 million
 

The accounting treatment of the new, absolute, in-contract price increases will provide something of a boost to some operators this year, but worsen the trend next year, particularly for BT/EE
 

The likely Vodafone/Three merger will be the primary theme for the industry in 2025 and beyond, putting upward pressure on capex levels industry-wide 
 

Vodafone’s Q2 performance was in line with the company’s guidance on almost every metric and was always going to be a tough one given the hit from TV losses in Germany and the annualisation of price increases there

The share price reaction (-6%) is likely a reflection of fears around Vodafone’s ability to improve underlying operational performance in Germany. Whilst this remains a valid concern, there is nothing in these results to amplify our worries on the issue

Escalating competitive pressure in German mobile is, however, a threat to the company’s growth outlook, and Vodafone’s promise to be “disciplined” in its approach to it may turn out to be too conservative a strategy

VMO2’s Q3 results were mixed, with underlying revenue and EBITDA slightly improving (but still negative), subscriber momentum slightly improved, but customer service issues still apparent.

The company’s broadband momentum is clearly being significantly curtailed by altnet gains (and Openreach overbuild), with substantial network expansion resulting in anaemic subscriber growth.

A return to growth in 2025 certainly looks possible, but it will depend on customer service issues being resolved, and industry consolidation going VMO2’s way. 

VMO2 survived the hammer blow of lower inflation-linked mobile price increases in Q2 with substantially unchanged revenue and EBITDA growth, helped by improving broadband ARPU

However, both mobile contract and broadband subs suffered declines, likely driven by issues with serving existing customers as well as attracting new ones, and these trends have to improve for the company to return to top and bottom line growth

Guidance implies that EBITDA growth will worsen in H2, but this would be good news in our view if it is driven by expenditure to support improved subscriber growth across broadband and mobile 

Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.

The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.

The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.

On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, Financial Times, and Adobe.

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation, and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry.

This is the edited transcript of Session Two, covering: Sky’s strategy; audience engagement with sport; the role of AI in journalism; and Amazon’s UK business and philanthropy. Videos of the presentations are available on the conference website.