UK football rights values have pulled further away from European peers in a stagnant market, as telcos have withdrawn and tech companies remain selective bidders.
Sky and Canal+ have tied down key contracts until towards the end of the decade, while DAZN now has domestic rights for four of the top five European football leagues.
Tech players want live sport, but have distinctive demands and without new monetisation models they will not challenge pay-TV incumbents.
The UK altnets collectively lost over £1bn in 2023, with most metrics unrealistically distant from what they need to be for a sustainable model, particularly the smaller retail-focused operators.
Consolidation is essential for survival, and CityFibre at least has a reasonable case for long term sustainability with a wholesale model and Sky as a customer, and looks the most viable altnet consolidator in our view, with VMO2/nexfibre able to pick up the pieces should the sector fail.
A lack of long-term viability and related financing difficulties will dramatically slow network roll-out, reducing the altnet pressure on the rest of the sector even if consolidation improves penetration levels.
We analysed hundreds of ads on YouTube, the biggest online video platform. Direct response campaigns predominate, especially among finance, ecommerce and technology buyers.
YouTube on TV hosts more brand campaigns with unskippable >30-second ads. In the UK, YouTube viewing on the TV set will grow c.80% by 2030, changing the profile of YouTube advertising.
YouTube generates about 85% of its revenue from ads. We found it also guides user behaviour by ramping up ad load for logged-out users so that they log in.
UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.
Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.
Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.
In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets.
On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.
The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.
Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth
Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices
Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn
Women’s sport press news coverage during the 2024 Paris Olympics has softened after three years of record-breaking highs, though it remains up 3.8x on 2016 levels
Publications vary in their representation, with populars increasing article numbers faster, though qualities continue to devote more space to women. Success is a key generator of ‘newsworthy’ content
Coverage of women’s sport, despite falling article numbers, is larger and more prominent than before, and the threshold for inclusion continues to fall—signalling wider normalisation of women in sports pages
In the past, broadcast TV and YouTube content has been poles apart—both in substance and the need states they served. This is changing, with the overlap in offerings growing
We estimate that c.61% of viewing of YouTube Trending content is of videos that could be considered TV-like. Similar programming makes up c.35% of broadcast TV viewing
YouTube’s videos are also becoming longer, raising audience tolerance and expectations, and allowing the service to compete in a broader range of genres. However, this will be challenged by monetisation limitations
Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions
Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating
Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream
Market revenue growth was just positive at 0.2% in Q2, as lower price increases were mitigated by some temporary ARPU gains.
Growth is likely to drop negative in the rest of year however, with continued weak volume growth compounded by temporary ARPU gains unwinding.
Pricing structures differ quite widely as regards landline offers and out-of-contract pricing, and all could benefit from adopting best practice, a marginal gain worth pursuing in a tough market.