Launched in Germany two weeks ago, the à la carte service Primetime Channels broadly competes against Apple TV, Amazon's Prime Video Channels and pay-TV operators like Sky. The wide reach of YouTube provides marketing support.

Google probably sees an opportunity in the fragmented and uncertain German market—but it will eventually roll out Primetime Channels elsewhere in Europe.

Google’s exclusive NFL rights is the content engine for Primetime Channels in the US. The launch in Germany makes it more plausible that Google might bid for premium European football rights such as the Premier League.

As younger viewers continue to migrate from linear TV to online video-sharing platforms, engaging with the audiences on these platforms is no longer simply an opportunity, but a necessity.

However, this ecosystem offers broadcasters limited monetisation opportunities, reduced audience data and worse attribution than the more lucrative broadcast TV model.

In this fragmented media landscape, broadcasters must maximise their digital reach and exploit incremental revenue opportunities, although linear channels and owned-and-operated platforms will continue to provide the bulk of revenues.

We forecast broadcaster viewing to shrink to below half of total video viewing by 2028 (48%)—down from 64% today—as streaming services gain share of long-form viewing time.

On the key advertising battleground of the TV set, broadcasters will still retain scale with a 63% viewing share by 2028, even as SVOD and YouTube double their impact.

Short-form video will continue to displace long-form as video-first apps (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) gain further popularity and others (e.g. Facebook, Instagram) continue a relentless pivot to video. This will expand the amount of video watched and transition habits—even amongst older demographics.

Recent developments in AI have ignited a frenzy in the tech world and wider society. Though some predictions are closer to sci-fi, this new phase is a real advance.

We view AI as a ‘supercharger’, boosting productivity of workers. The impact is already being felt across media sectors, including advertising and publishing.

Firms thinking about using AI should assess which tasks can be augmented and what data is required. Be prepared for unpredictable outputs and a changing legal and tech landscape.

Broadcaster decline accelerated in 2022, with record drops in reach and time spent. This was primarily driven by the lightest and youngest viewers leaving broadcast television while over-65s also reduced their viewing for the first time.

Loss of lighter viewers threatens the future viewing base of broadcasters and relevance to a new generation. Further, broadcaster status as the home of mass audiences becomes compromised.

However, retention of lighter viewers is not yet a lost cause. They are amongst the heaviest Netflix viewers, and the very lightest are spending more time in front of the TV set than previously—suggesting enduring appetite for TV-like content.

Disney’s media and entertainment division plunged into losses as SVOD content cost increases outpaced revenue growth.

Cost cuts will primarily impact non-sports and international output, raising questions about the supply of Disney+’s content in Europe.

Bob Iger’s reorganisation to three operating units will be transformative only when associated with a growth strategy.

Structural shifts in the delivery of video are causing long-form viewing to coalesce around fewer programmes—this comes despite an explosion in the volume, spend and perceptual accessibility of content

For the time being this theoretically favours the largest of shows, along with the declining number of content providers that are able to create and distribute them at scale, forming critical masses of interest

Incoming technologies leveraging AI and virtual production will have the ability to drastically lower production costs. But until that happens the spend on most programming will become increasingly less efficient

By firing Bob Chapek, the board responded decisively to a stream of negative press coverage and unexpected weak results.

Iger's priority should be unwinding Chapek’s revenue and distribution structure that separated creatives from investment control.

What will be the next transformational deal for Iger-led Disney? Strategic gaps include a youth audience pivoted towards social media and games

Disney’s core competitive advantages reside in its IP stock and in consumers’ lifelong affection for its brands, but the company faces a growing challenge from much larger tech platforms, pushing up the costs of production, sports rights and access to future IP.

Disney’s resources for content expenditure are now flat. The fat profit contribution from US linear channels may soon start to decline whereas direct-to-consumer losses at Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ are still increasing, and the recovery of parks could be capped by the worsening economy.

With its recognisable IP, Disney will benefit if global video viewing continues to coalesce around fewer, bigger series, although a weak future cinema market— which Disney dominates and leverages—will impair the creation of big, new IP properties. China and India’s potential may not materialise soon.

With major studios arguably over-indexed on SVOD, the stickier experiences of interactive entertainment and the metaverse will eventually form a critical pillar of studio D2C strategy, boosting subscription services and tying in closely with consumer products and theme parks.

Disney’s appointment of a Chief Metaverse Officer is good first step, demonstrating a strategic interest in the space. But other major studios remain cautious and distracted, with limited capability beyond licensing to engage in the metaverse for the next 24 months and possibly longer.

Meta will need to provide a strong guiding hand creatively and technically to ensure its new partnership with NBCUniversal is a success, and to evangelise the metaverse and its revenue model across the Hollywood studio content space.